US Homebuyers Are ‘Quitting’ as Sellers Outnumber Buyers by 51.3%: Buyer Count Hits Record Low

Tanya Rawat

Tue, August 25, 2026 at 3:31 PM GMT+3 6 min read

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Market commentator The Kobeissi Letter said U.S. homebuyers are pulling back as seller surplus over buyers widened in July.

In a post on X on Sunday, The Kobeissi Letter said sellers outnumbered buyers by an estimated 51.3% in July, the second-highest gap on record. Active homebuyers fell 2.5% month over month to 966,752, the lowest level on record, while sellers declined 0.3% to about 1.46 million. It said about 80% of major U.S. metros are now buyer's markets and warned of further downward pressure on home prices.

US homebuyers are quitting.
There were an estimated +51.3% more home sellers than buyers in July, the 2nd highest level on record.
This percentage has doubled over the last 2 years.
By comparison, an all-time high of +51.8% was recorded in December 2025.
This comes as the… pic.twitter.com/x0sZ51NXPx

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 23, 2026

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Homebuyers Fall to Record Low

The figures The Kobeissi Letter highlighted come from Redfin's July analysis of buyers and sellers using MLS data and Redfin's proprietary data. The analysis estimated 966,752 active homebuyers in July, down 2.5% from the previous month, while the number of sellers stood at about 1.46 million.

The 51.3% gap between sellers and buyers was the second-highest level on record, behind the 51.8% gap recorded in December 2025.

The widening gap was driven mainly by the sharper decline in buyers rather than a surge in sellers. Sellers declined just 0.3% month over month, compared with the 2.5% drop in buyers.

Redfin estimates the number of buyers using active listings and pending sales from the MLS, along with its data on the typical time between a buyer's first tour and purchase. Seller estimates are based on active MLS listings. The estimates are seasonally adjusted and subject to revision.

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Buyers Gain More Negotiating Power

About 80% of major U.S. metros were buyer's markets in July, according to the Redfin analysis. A market is considered a buyer's market when sellers outnumber buyers by more than 10%.

Miami had the largest imbalance, with an estimated 154% more sellers than buyers. Nashville followed with 151%, Houston with 130%, San Antonio with 116% and Austin with 112%.

The shift gives buyers more room to negotiate on price and other terms as sellers compete for a smaller pool of potential purchasers.

Recent housing-market trends have already pointed toward greater buyer leverage. More homes have been sitting on the market longer, while sellers have increasingly offered concessions to attract buyers.

Mortgage Rates Keep Buyers on the Sidelines

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.75%, up from 6.69% at the end of the previous week.

Pending home sales fell 2.3% in July from the previous month and 2.2% from a year earlier, reaching their lowest level since January 2026, according to the National Association of Realtors.

"The highest mortgage rates of the year hit right in the middle of summer, and that's pulling back contract signings," National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in an NAR report.

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The combination of elevated mortgage rates and high home prices is making it harder for prospective buyers to afford homes, while a weaker labor market is adding pressure for first-time buyers trying to save for down payments.

Home Prices Face Downward Pressure

The growing gap between buyers and sellers does not guarantee that home prices will fall across the U.S. Housing conditions continue to vary significantly by market.

Six major U.S. metros remained seller's markets in July, while 39 of the 49 markets analyzed by Redfin were buyer's markets. Home-sale prices rose an average of 4.2% year over year across the seller's markets, compared with a 2.3% increase across the buyer's markets.

Still, the record-low number of active buyers and the growing seller surplus point to weaker demand in much of the housing market.

Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

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