Fed Başkanı Kevin Warsh Jackson Hole'un 2026 'daki konuşması: Ne beklemeli?

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Jackson Hole speech 2026: What to expect

Fri, August 28, 2026 at 2:26 PM GMT+3 2 min read

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver remarks Friday at 10 a.m. EDT at the Kansas City Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, facing significant pressure to provide clarity on inflation and the path for interest rates.

Warsh has drawn repeated criticism for refusing to spell out his "reaction function" — meaning the economic circumstances under which the Fed would move rates in either direction — and investors see Friday's address as his clearest opening yet to fill that void, according to CNBC. Investors currently see roughly a 34% chance that Fed officials will raise rates at their September 15-16 meeting.

Warsh has been chairman since May and has held just one FOMC meeting, at which he kept the benchmark federal funds rate steady at a target range of 3.5% to 3.75%. In that time, he has withheld both forward guidance and any definition of his reaction function, leaving it to markets to read the incoming data and relay their conclusions back to policymakers.

The stakes are elevated heading into Friday. Bond yields have risen in the weeks since Warsh's July press conference, a period that also saw Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveil a plan to expand the department's weekly debt-buyback program to at least twice its normal size starting September 9, according to CNBC. That intervention has complicated Warsh's posture, according to Axios.

"We're in a unique set of conditions here, where actions by the Treasury have undermined Warsh's move. Therefore, the Fed chair is in between a rock and a hard place," Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said.

Economists are divided on what Warsh will say. Luke Tilley, chief economist at M&T Bank and Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors, said he anticipates Warsh will use the speech to sketch out the task forces' work at a high level, sidestepping any granular take on current economic conditions or where rates are headed. Jan Groen, chief U.S. economist at Societe Generale, said he does not expect any rate signals and warned markets would react poorly to that outcome, according to CNN.

Mark Cabana, head of U.S. rates strategy at Bank of America, cautioned in a client note that a speech confined to big-picture topics — without any indication that rate hikes remain on the table — risks being read as a dovish signal, potentially triggering a long-bond selloff that pushes the 30-year Treasury yield to 5.5% or above.

Warsh has established five task forces to review Fed operations across communications, balance sheet policy, data, productivity and jobs, and inflation frameworks — each staffed by outside academics and business figures. He has also pledged to Congress that the Fed has "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation" and called for a "regime change" in the central bank's policy approach. The 2026 symposium's theme is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy," the Kansas City Fed said.