Yeni Fed Başkanı, Artışınızın Enflasyona Neden Olduğu Fikrini Reddetti

The New Fed Chair Just Rejected the Idea That Your Raise Causes Inflation

Omor Ibne Ehsan

Sat, August 29, 2026 at 5:39 PM GMT+3 5 min read

Quick Read

Warsh scrapped the Phillips curve dogma, blaming fiscal deficits and money creation for inflation rather than worker paychecks or a hot labor market.
NVDA doubled revenue to $96B and CAT hit its first $20B quarter; both gain if Warsh's Fed stops treating investment cycles as overheating.
JPM reported a 23% ROTCE, but a Fed less reactive to hiring data could quietly compress rate volatility for bank shareholders heading into September 16.
Don't wait: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just revealed his top 10 AI stocks. See the full list FREE now.

Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole speech as Fed chair to attack the idea that inflation comes from workers earning too much. If he is right that price pressure originates with government spending and money creation rather than a hot labor market, the central bank loses its traditional excuse to raise rates when hiring accelerates or paychecks grow.

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That reframing matters for anyone holding growth stocks, industrials, or bank shares. Inflation has run above the Fed's target for 65 months, yet core PCE over the past three months is closer to the 2% goal, and the market priced roughly a 55% to 60% chance of a rate hike at the September meeting on August 28, 2026. The next decision arrives September 16, and Warsh has given the market a new intellectual framework to argue with.

Warsh's Break From Phillips Curve Orthodoxy

David Asman, summarizing Warsh's argument on Fox Business, said the chair believes "the Fed should re-examine its great mistakes that led to the great inflation" and "abandon the dogma that inflation is caused when the economy grows too much and workers get paid too much." Warsh locates inflation in fiscal deficits and money printing instead.

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Analyst Phil Kerpen described the shift as "the biggest change that we have at the new Fed chair," arguing that the wage-push narrative had been institutionally protected for decades. Warsh said the Fed must be confident that underlying inflation is moving toward its objective, and that there is clearly not yet sufficient speed.

Kenny Polcari read Warsh as deliberately leaving room to maneuver, saying he is "not going to back himself into a corner" and will "let the market do a lot of the work." Warsh has made the fiscal-inflation case before in the Wall Street Journal.

The empirical backdrop runs counter to the wage-panic story. Average hourly earnings reached $37.62 in July 2026, while real hourly earnings sat at $11.30, barely above where they were a year earlier. Warsh projected that a one-percentage-point increase in annual productivity growth would double living standards within a single generation, putting productivity at the center of Fed thinking.

AI Productivity Case Behind NVIDIA

NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) is the clearest expression of the supply-side story Warsh's framework rewards. The company reported total revenue of $96 billion, more than doubling year over year in its second-quarter fiscal 2027 results.

CEO Jensen Huang argued the buildout is self-funding because "AI is now doing productive and useful work" and generating profitable tokens for customers. He claimed return on invested capital is now less than a year on $50 billion in data centers. CFO Colette Kress said CapEx by the top five hyperscalers is expected to reach nearly $800 billion in 2026 and $1.3 trillion in 2027, financed in part by partnerships that will raise over $500 billion of third-party capital. Details are in the company's quarterly earnings release.

Shares closed at $217.55 on August 28, 2026, up 16.79% year-to-date. That valuation only holds if the productivity gains Huang describes are real and durable. Warsh's framework is friendlier to that thesis than a traditional Phillips curve view. A Fed that treats productivity as the antidote to inflation has less reason to punish the capital cycle that powers NVIDIA's revenue.

Industrial Capex Meets the New Framework

Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) posted sales and revenues of $20.5 billion, up 24% versus the prior year, the first $20 billion quarter in its history. Power generation sales grew by 72%, driven by demand for gensets and turbines for data center applications.

CEO Joe Creed said "no one is slowing down at the moment", with backlog reaching $72 billion and orders extending into 2030. CFO Kyle Epley attributed higher operating expenses to "higher compensation expense and strategic investments related to technology, including autonomy". Caterpillar's management attributed cost pressures to tariffs, freight, and depreciation from capacity expansion, rather than to wages.

Shares finished at $800.25, up 40.56% YTD. Caterpillar is the physical layer of the AI capex story that NVIDIA sits on top of, and the power, cooling, and networking suppliers behind the same buildout are the subject of a free report we put together on seven AI infrastructure names that aren't chipmakers. If Warsh's argument prevails, the Fed treats this construction cycle as productive investment rather than overheating that needs cooling.

What This Means for Bank Shareholders

JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) reported adjusted EPS of $6.14 on revenue of approximately $57 billion and a 23% ROTCE. CEO Jamie Dimon called the environment "a very healthy, active, exuberant market with very high prices and very high volumes."

Dimon's earlier warning about sticky inflation is a useful counterweight to the Warsh view. Both men can be partly right if fiscal impulses keep prices elevated while labor markets fail to pass through much real wage growth. The bank's stress testing assumes an environment with "meaningfully different" inflation and a more aggressive Fed response, so Dimon is not betting the franchise on Warsh being correct. Shares closed at $357.62.

The 10-year Treasury sits at 4.67% while the Fed funds upper bound remains 3.75%, producing a 10Y-2Y spread of 0.39%. A Fed that stops treating wage growth as an inflation input is likely a Fed that cuts less aggressively when the labor market softens and hikes less reflexively when it strengthens. That volatility compression is the quiet win for investors watching the September 16 decision.