Anthropic Is Chasing a $2T Valuation — A Wall Street Veteran Says Its Biggest IPO Risk Isn't What Investors Think

Namrata Sen

Sat, August 29, 2026 at 7:31 PM GMT+3 5 min read

SPCX +0.45%

Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below.

The biggest risk after Anthropic's IPO would be its "revenue quality," which is a structural mismatch in the business that may be hidden by the current run-rate, says Dr. Chan Ahn, Founder and CEO of Tessera PE and a former Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan executive.

Dr Ahn told Benzinga in an exclusive interview that the cost side of Anthropic's business runs on contracts, while the revenue side is based on usage. This mismatch could affect how public markets value the company. The company's revenue is metered and continuously repriced based on both volume and unit price, with no contractual term.

Don't Miss:

A single bad hire can set a startup back years. Here are the 5 hires founders most often misjudge — and why
Still Learning the Market? These 50 Must-Know Terms Can Help You Catch Up Fast

Anthropic has a fixed commitment of roughly $1.25 billion a month running until May 2029, which amounts to about $15 billion a year or close to 30% of its estimated 2026 revenue. This commitment is to Space Exploration Technologies Corp., a direct competitor, after it acquired xAI.

The Wall Street Veteran compared Anthropic's situation to the long-haul bandwidth build-out from 1999 to 2002, where fixed long-dated capacity commitments were sized to extrapolated demand curves, and unit prices deflated as capacity arrived faster than traffic. The same could happen to Anthropic, turning its capacity commitment into a stranded cost.

Dr. Ahn stated that the single most important figure from the S-1 filing would be the split between committed-spend enterprise agreements and pure on-demand usage. This would reveal whether the company is funding a fixed multi-year obligation with a revenue stream that could be interrupted in less than three weeks.

Regulatory Shock Tests Revenue

He also pointed out the risk of the company's revenue stream being interrupted by regulatory action. In June, U.S. export controls temporarily pulled Anthropic's two leading models offline for 19 days, reportedly slowing revenue growth before it recovered. The episode highlighted the risk of Anthropic's usage-based revenue model, which can quickly respond to disruptions, while its fixed contractual costs remain unchanged.

"A contracted enterprise book does not bend inside nineteen days. A metered service with cancellable demand does. The obligation, meanwhile, did not move at all," said Ahn.

AI Labs Carry Research Risk

He stated that the key structural concern is that frontier AI labs are financing high-risk scientific research with venture capital, even as they are being valued like mature software companies. Historically, similar research risks were largely absorbed by governments or protected monopolies, rather than public-market investors.

"Listing does not remove the science-tranche risk. It transfers it to a holder who marks to market daily," Ahn said.

SpaceX Offers Anthropic a Warning

Anthropic's reported $2 trillion valuation faces a reality check as Ahn warned that the company must deliver extraordinary revenue growth and margin expansion to justify the figure. Ahn estimates Anthropic would need roughly $725 billion in revenue by 2036, or about $950 billion under a higher discount rate. While its annualized revenue run rate has surged to $65 billion, profitability remains a concern, with its projected Q2 operating margin at just 5.1%.

The Wall Street veteran pointed to SpaceX's post-IPO experience as a warning, arguing that public markets impose far greater earnings scrutiny than private investors. He also says Anthropic's valuation is largely a bet on the broader AI sector, with enterprise workflows providing a more durable advantage than model leadership alone

Earlier this week, a report suggested that Anthropic is preparing to target a potential revenue opportunity of more than $30 trillion, surpassing SpaceX's estimated $28.5 trillion market opportunity. The Claude maker could seek to raise as much as $100 billion and is expected to file IPO disclosure documents in the coming weeks, with a public listing possible as early as September or October.

Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

Read Next: Think you're saving enough for your kids? You might be dangerously off — see why

Building Wealth Across More Than Just the Market

Building a resilient portfolio means thinking beyond a single asset or market trend. Economic cycles shift, sectors rise and fall, and no one investment performs well in every environment. That's why many investors look to diversify with platforms that provide access to real estate, fixed-income opportunities, precious metals, and even self-directed retirement accounts. By spreading exposure across multiple asset classes, it becomes easier to manage risk, capture steady returns, and create long-term wealth that isn't tied to the fortunes of just one company or industry.

Arrived

Backed by Jeff Bezos, Arrived Homes makes real estate investing accessible with a low barrier to entry. Investors can buy fractional shares of single-family rentals and vacation homes starting with as little as $100. This allows everyday investors to diversify into real estate, collect rental income, and build long-term wealth without needing to manage properties directly.

Qnetic

As electricity demand rises alongside AI, data centers, and renewable energy, long-duration energy storage is becoming increasingly important. Qnetic is developing a kinetic energy storage system designed to provide long-lasting, chemical-free electricity storage, offering investors exposure to the infrastructure supporting a more resilient and reliable power grid.

EquityMultiple

For accredited investors looking beyond stocks and bonds, EquityMultiple provides access to vetted commercial real estate deals starting at $5,000, with only ~5% of opportunities passing their due diligence process.

FarmTogether

Farmland has historically held its value through market volatility and delivered returns uncorrelated to stocks and bonds. For accredited investors, FarmTogether offers direct access to high-quality U.S. farmland starting at $15,000 — fully managed, with no landlord headaches.

Fundrise

Private real estate and private credit can add income and stability to a stock-heavy portfolio. Fundrise offers access to diversified private real estate and credit strategies through an easy-to-use platform, with professionally managed portfolios designed to generate passive income and long-term growth.