Intel Climbs 4% as Chip Stocks Shrug Off Rising Rate Hike Odds; NVIDIA and AMD Move Higher

Intel Climbs 4% as Chip Stocks Shrug Off Rising Rate Hike Odds; NVIDIA and AMD Move Higher

David Moadel

Fri, September 4, 2026 at 6:12 PM GMT+3 5 min read

Quick Read

• Intel surges 4% and sits 148% higher year to date, rebounding from a 9% monthly slide even as rate-hike odds climb above 60%.

• SOXX outpaces QQQ by nearly 3 percentage points as NVIDIA's 106% and AMD's 50% revenue growth anchor investor conviction in chips.

• Intel's external foundry revenue stands at just $293 million, the swing factor that must scale substantially for the turnaround thesis to hold.

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Semiconductor stocks are outrunning the broader tech tape Friday morning even as a hot August payrolls report drove the odds of a September Federal Reserve rate hike sharply higher. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) is up 3% to $517.91, leading the market. The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) is up 0.02% to $718.70, representing a tiny fraction of the chip move.

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) is one of the loudest names inside that rotation. Intel stock is up 4% to $95.41 in early trading, extending a year-long run built on the foundry turnaround thesis. The move stands out because it's happening on a session when the macro backdrop should be working against high-multiple chip names.

Jobs Beat Lifts Rate Hike Odds

The Labor Department reported that employers added 162,000 jobs in August, well above the 65,000 economists had penciled in, and the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. According to CME FedWatch, expectations for a September rate hike jumped to 60.2% from 49.4% on Thursday.

Intel announced no company-specific news this morning. The move reads as sector flow rather than a fresh catalyst, and higher rates would typically pressure rate-sensitive semiconductor valuations first. That the chip group is bid anyway suggests capital is rotating specifically into semiconductors while the broader risk-on tape lags.

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Chip Bid Sits Inside Semiconductors

The setup is what makes this session interesting. A payroll print that far above forecast usually punishes rate-sensitive tech, yet the semiconductor complex is running ahead of large-cap technology as a whole. The gap between the two ETFs on the same tape tells the story more clearly than any single stock does.

Intel's peers NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) are the other large merchant chip designers positioned inside the same rotation. NVDA stock is up 2% to $232.37, while AMD stock is up 3% to $471.05.

NVIDIA's most recent quarter delivered revenue of $96.22 billion, up 105.8% year over year, while AMD posted Q2 2026 revenue of $11.54 billion, up 50.1%, with Data Center revenue more than doubling. Those results frame the fundamental backdrop that keeps money flowing to chips even when the rate outlook tightens, and the buildout around them (power, cooling, networking) is the subject of a free report on seven AI infrastructure suppliers that aren't chipmakers.

Rally Extends Intel's Year-to-Date Run

For Intel, the annual figure carries more information than the session does. Intel stock was up 148% year to date through Thursday's close, powered by CEO Lip-Bu Tan's foundry turnaround pitch and a string of strong quarters. However, the shares have given ground in recent weeks: Intel stock was down 9% over the past month through Thursday's close, so today's gain is a rebound off softer levels rather than a fresh breakout.

Intel's Q2 2026 report backed the bull case, with revenue of $16.13 billion, up 25.4% year over year, and Data Center and AI revenue surging 59%. Yet the foundry line remains the swing factor. External Foundry revenue was $293 million in Q2 2026, still a small slice of a story that has to grow substantially for the thesis to hold. Nothing disclosed today speaks to that execution question.

What to Watch Next

Traders can watch for whether the semiconductor bid holds if rate-hike odds keep climbing into the CPI print and the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting. A follow-through above $100 on Intel stock without a fresh external foundry customer announcement would be a signal that the sector rotation has real legs. NVIDIA and AMD are the other listed merchant designers to track as the flow develops.

Investors should size their INTC stock positions with the tape's split signals in mind. The chip group is leading a session driven by a macro print that historically works against high-multiple names, and that tension can resolve in either direction. Keeping their exposure measured while the rotation is still forming lets them stay engaged without overcommitting capital to a one-day move.

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