Stock Futures Muted as Bond Yields Stabilize, U.S. Economic Data and Fed Speak on Tap

Stock Futures Muted as Bond Yields Stabilize, U.S. Economic Data and Fed Speak on Tap

Oleksandr Pylypenko

Thu, September 3, 2026 at 1:34 PM GMT+3 11 min read

• CL=F +0.04%

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU26) are up +0.08%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU26) are down -0.09% this morning, pointing to a muted open on Wall Street as bond yields stabilized near multi-year highs, while investors digested the latest batch of tech earnings.

The price of WTI crude reversed earlier losses and rose more than +1% on Thursday after Tehran's claims of fresh retaliation overshadowed U.S. President Donald Trump's prediction of a short-lived operation against Iran. The state-run Islamic Republic News Agency reported on Thursday that Iran's military launched missile and drone attacks on U.S. bases in Kuwait and the UAE. Oil prices initially moved lower after President Trump told reporters that he does not expect the renewed U.S. bombing campaign against Iran to last "too long."

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Elevated oil prices are keeping bond yields near multi-year highs. The 10-year T-note yield was little changed at 4.78% on Thursday after reaching 4.82% on Wednesday, its highest level since November 2023.

Nasdaq 100 futures underperformed as Broadcom and Hewlett Packard Enterprise fell in pre-market trading following their earnings reports. Broadcom (AVGO) slid nearly -3% after the chip designer issued soft FQ4 revenue guidance. Also, Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) dropped over -3% after the company reported FQ3 revenue that fell short of some of the highest estimates. At the same time, Snowflake (SNOW) jumped more than +23% after the software company posted upbeat Q2 results and raised its full-year product revenue guidance.

Market participants are now awaiting a new round of U.S. economic data and remarks from Federal Reserve officials.

In yesterday's trading session, Wall Street's three main equity benchmarks ended in the green. Dell Technologies (DELL) jumped over +15% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the company posted upbeat Q2 results and raised its full-year sales outlook amid robust demand for AI servers. Also, chip stocks climbed, with Nvidia (NVDA) rising over +3% to lead gainers in the Dow and NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) advancing more than +2%. In addition, GitLab (GTLB) surged about +10% after the coding platform reported stronger-than-expected Q2 results and raised its full-year guidance. On the bearish side, Palo Alto Networks (PANW) slumped more than -9% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the cybersecurity company posted a narrower gross margin in FQ4 and forecast slower sales growth for its next-generation security products in FY27.

The ADP National Employment report released on Wednesday showed that U.S. private-sector payrolls rose by 38K in August, slightly below expectations of 47K, pointing to a stable labor market. Separately, U.S. factory orders jumped +0.9% m/m in July, stronger than expectations of +0.7% m/m.

"The labor market is pretty benign right now. There's a strong argument to be made that the Fed has accomplished its mission on the employment front and can now continue to pay more attention to inflation," said Michael Landsberg at Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management.

New York Fed President John Williams said in a CNBC interview on Wednesday that there are signs inflation continues to moderate as the effects of tariffs diminish, while higher energy prices have not spilled over into other services. Williams added that "coming out of the last FOMC meeting, interest rates are in a good place" to balance the central bank's dual mandate of full employment and price stability. Still, he said there are "no clear signs right now…whether monetary policy currently is sufficient to make sure we bring inflation back to target in the next year or two, or whether we need to see further action to do that."

Meanwhile, the Fed said on Wednesday in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts that U.S. economic activity increased modestly over the past two months, with demand from data centers serving as a key driver of growth. The outlook for the economy was "positive," according to the Beige Book, but sentiment was mixed across sectors amid uncertainty stemming from higher energy prices as the Middle East conflict continued. The report noted that prices increased moderately in most districts, while employment rose slightly overall.

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 60.2% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike and a 39.8% chance of no rate change at this month's monetary policy meeting.

Today, investors will focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect applications for U.S. unemployment benefits to come in at 205K in the week ended August 29th, compared with 203K in the prior week.

The U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and S&P Global Services PMI will also be closely monitored today. Economists expect the August ISM services index to tick up to 54.2 from 54.1 in July, while the final S&P Global services PMI is projected to remain unrevised at 56.8.

U.S. Unit Labor Costs and Nonfarm Productivity data will be released today. Economists forecast final Q2 unit labor costs to rise +1.3% q/q and nonfarm productivity to rise +1.4% q/q, compared with the revised first-quarter numbers of +1.3% q/q and +0.8% q/q, respectively.

U.S. Trade Balance data will be released today as well. Economists anticipate that the trade deficit will widen to -$89.4 billion in July from -$73.3 billion in June.

In addition, market participants will parse comments today from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee.

On the earnings front, networking company Ciena (CIEN), network security company Zscaler (ZS), and software company Samsara (IOT) are among the notable names slated to release their quarterly results today.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.78%, down -0.10%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.05% this morning, steadying as the global bond selloff paused. Telecom, media, and technology stocks outperformed on Thursday. At the same time, energy and luxury stocks slipped, limiting gains in the broader market. A survey released on Thursday showed that growth in the Eurozone's dominant services sector slowed to a two-month low in August, though resilient and broad-based demand kept overall private-sector activity on a steady footing. Separately, data showed that Switzerland's annual inflation rate accelerated in August, reversing several months of easing price growth as renewed Middle East tensions drove global energy costs higher. Meanwhile, European government bond yields fell on Thursday, taking a breather after reaching successive multi-year highs in recent sessions. Elsewhere, the Ifo Institute on Thursday raised its 2026 growth forecast for Germany to 1.4% from 0.8% in its previous quarterly report, citing robust exports and increased public investment. In corporate news, Soitec (SOI.FP) surged over +13% after the semiconductor-materials maker raised its revenue growth guidance for the current quarter. Also, Publicis Groupe (PUB.FP) rose more than +3% following reports that PepsiCo moved its global media account to the company from U.S. rival Omnicom Group.

Switzerland's CPI, Eurozone's Composite PMI, Eurozone's Services PMI, and Eurozone's PPI data were released today.

Switzerland's August CPI rose +0.4% m/m and +0.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of no change m/m and +0.5% y/y.

Eurozone's August Composite PMI was revised downward to 52.0 from the preliminary reading of 52.1.

Eurozone's August Services PMI was revised downward to 51.6 from the preliminary reading of 51.7.

Eurozone's July PPI rose +1.6% m/m, stronger than expectations of +1.2% m/m.

Asian stock markets today closed mixed. China's Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.02%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.17%.

China's Shanghai Composite Index closed just above the flatline today, stabilizing after two straight sessions of losses. Property stocks were among the biggest gainers on Thursday. Chinese equities also found support in an upbeat private services PMI survey. The private-sector survey released on Thursday showed that China's services activity grew at a faster pace in August, recovering from a sharp slowdown in July, as new business growth accelerated and hiring strengthened in the sector. The private gauge pointed to a stronger outcome than the official measure, which showed that services activity was unchanged from the previous month. "Business sentiment regarding the 12-month outlook improved from July's recent low," said Yao Yu, founder of RatingDog. Meanwhile, China's central bank governor Pan Gongsheng told the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting that the country does not deliberately seek a trade surplus and remains committed to boosting domestic demand and maintaining a high level of openness to the global economy. Elsewhere, Reuters reported on Thursday that Chinese optical communications equipment maker Ligent Technologies plans to launch its Hong Kong initial public offering as early as September 14th, seeking to raise about $800 million. In corporate news, HUTCHMED (China) jumped over +14% in Hong Kong after the biopharmaceutical company said it had signed an exclusive development and licensing agreement with U.K. drugmaker GSK for a cancer drug.

The Chinese August RatingDog Services PMI came in at 51.4, stronger than expectations of 50.6.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed slightly lower in volatile trading today. The Nikkei opened higher as investors welcomed a pause in the global bond selloff. However, the benchmark index turned lower in the afternoon session as chipmakers in South Korea gave up earlier gains, weighing on some domestic tech stocks. Japanese equities were also pressured by a stronger yen. The yen extended its advance on Thursday after a surge in the previous session, though traders refrained from attributing the move to Japanese authorities and instead cited a hawkish repricing of domestic interest-rate expectations. Markets have almost fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Bank of Japan later this month, but Ipek Ozkardeskaya at Swissquote said some traders are now wagering "that the BOJ could potentially announce a jumbo hike to stop the bleeding in the Japanese yen." Meanwhile, Japanese government bond yields fell sharply on Thursday as lower oil prices buoyed bonds globally, while the 30-year bond auction passed smoothly as expected. On the economic front, a survey showed on Thursday that Japan's services sector grew at its fastest pace in five months in August, as stronger domestic demand boosted business activity and new orders. At the same time, the survey showed that cost pressures remain a key concern for Japanese firms, offering another sign that the inflationary backdrop remains conducive to monetary tightening. Elsewhere, foreign investors bought a net 35.8 billion yen worth of Japanese stocks in the week through August 29th, following net sales of 763.4 billion yen in the prior week, according to Ministry of Finance data. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +10.84% to 28.32.

The Japanese August S&P Global Services PMI was revised higher to 52.5 from the preliminary reading of 52.3.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Broadcom (AVGO) slid nearly -3% in pre-market trading after the chip designer issued soft FQ4 revenue guidance.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) dropped over -3% in pre-market trading after the company reported FQ3 revenue that fell short of some of the highest estimates.

Moderna (MRNA) fell more than -2% in pre-market trading after Rothschild & Co. Redburn downgraded the stock to Sell from Neutral with a price target of $81.

Snowflake (SNOW) jumped more than +23% in pre-market trading after the software company posted upbeat Q2 results and raised its full-year product revenue guidance.

Five Below (FIVE) climbed over +5% in pre-market trading after the discount retailer reported better-than-expected Q2 results and boosted its annual guidance.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today's U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Thursday - September 3rd

Ciena (CIEN), Zscaler (ZS), Samsara (IOT), Guidewire Software (GWRE), lululemon athletica inc. (LULU), DocuSign (DOCU), The Toro Company (TTC), UiPath (PATH), VinFast Auto (VFS), The Campbell's Company (CPB), Planet Labs PBC (PL), Victoria's Secret & Co. (VSXY), BRP Inc. (DOO), Brady (BRC), Ermenegildo Zegna (ZGN), Ambarella (AMBA), John Wiley & Sons (WLY), John Wiley & Sons (WLYB), Asana (ASAN), Quanex Building Products (NX), Mama's Creations (MAMA), VersaBank (VBNK), Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI), Oxford Industries (OXM), Concrete Pumping Holdings (BBCP), Genesco (GCO), Lands' End (LE), Torrid Holdings (CURV), eGain (EGAN), Domo, Inc. (DOMO), Duluth Holdings (DLTH), American Outdoor Brands (AOUT).

On the date of publication, Oleksandr Pylypenko did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com