Morgan Stanley, SpaceX Hisselerinin 300 $ 'a Yükselebileceğini Söyledi

SpaceX Stock Could Soar to $300, Says Morgan Stanley

Sushree Mohanty

Fri, September 4, 2026 at 3:40 PM GMT+3 5 min read

• SPCX -1.20%

SpaceX (SPCX) stock has lost its IPO shine, with shares down 32.6% since it began trading on June 12 and reaching a high of $225.64. Nonetheless, Morgan Stanley (MS) analyst Adam Jonas believes the stock may be sitting at an important entry point. Jonas maintains an Overweight rating and a $300 price target, which represents a 111% upside from SpaceX's Sept 1 closing price of $142.23.

The question now is whether SpaceX's rapidly expanding businesses can grow into the valuation investors are being asked to pay today.

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The $100 Billion Louisiana Bet Is About More Than Rockets

Morgan Stanley's bullish argument mostly centers around SpaceX's Louisiana plans. The company plans to invest $100 billion in a new Starbase complex in southern Louisiana, with construction expected to begin in 2027 and initial launches targeted for 2029. This facility is anticipated to eventually house 10 launch pads spread across five launch complexes. Analyst Adam Jonas sees this site as a critical component of the company's capacity to significantly boost Starship launch activities.

In the Q2 earnings call, management had already stated that SpaceX has been working on the infrastructure required to support thousands of Starship launches per year. SpaceX also said Starship is intended to quadruple payload capacity while reducing launch costs by 10 times compared with Falcon 9. Furthermore, Morgan Stanley expects SpaceX to conduct nearly 5,800 Starship launches annually by 2040, or roughly 16 launches a day. It also forecasts that eight launch pads are sufficient to support the cadence, assuming each pad could handle roughly two launches every day.

While the firm's long-term launch forecast might appear a bit extreme, Musk's vision aligns with it. Musk stated that Falcon currently delivers roughly 2,500 tons into orbit each year. His long-term ambition is for Starship to deliver more than 1 million tons annually, potentially reaching 10 million tons a year. If Starship achieves the reuse and turnaround rates that SpaceX anticipates, these launch pads will eventually become the infrastructure required to operate a much larger-volume transportation system to orbit.

Importantly, while SpaceX stock may have entered the public market this year, it isn't a company that is starting from zero. During the first six months of 2026, SpaceX recorded 78 launches and delivered 1,041 tons of payload to orbit. Morgan Stanley is bullish because Falcon is already operating at its highest launch cadence, while Starship is moving closer to regular operations after completing two successful V3 flight tests in the second quarter.

SpaceX Is Planning Much More Than Another Rocket Base

Unlike Tesla, SpaceX financials offer something more tangible than just Elon Musk's big long-term ambitions. In the second quarter, SpaceX reported a 92% year-over-year (YOY) growth in revenue to $7.8 billion. While the company reported a net loss of $541 million, it improved over the $1 billion loss in the prior-year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA also climbed 191% YOY to $3.5 billion.

What's notable is SpaceX isn't built around just one business anymore. It has three major engines, including launch services, Starlink connectivity, and AI infrastructure. The launch business creates infrastructure, and Starlink generates recurring revenue. Meanwhile, AI is becoming a potentially enormous new source of demand for SpaceX's computing capacity. In Q2, the AI segment generated $2.6 billion, 247% YOY and 213% from Q1.

Furthermore, Morgan Stanley's bullish $300 target price isn't completely dependent on orbital AI. Starlink gives the company another layer of support. In the second quarter, Starlink added more than 1.7 million subscribers, generating connectivity revenue of $4.3 billion. SpaceX also won more than $6 billion in U.S. government contracts during Q2, with Enterprise & Government revenue increasing by 108% over the prior year.

Is the $300 SpaceX Target Realistic?

SpaceX's Q2 earnings report suggests that Morgan Stanley's projections are not unrealistic. In fact, management provided investors with two targets. One goal is to reach $100 billion in total company annual revenue by the end of December 2026 and to have more than 5 gigawatts of nameplate compute capacity by the end of 2027.

However, to reach the $300 target price, several things have to come together at the same time. Starship must become genuinely reusable at high frequency. AI demand must remain strong enough to justify enormous infrastructure spending. Starlink must continue expanding beyond consumers. And the returns on all that capital must eventually outweigh the financing burden.

For now, SPCX stock is priced for substantial future success. Therefore, it remains a suitable buy for investors with a long time horizon and high risk tolerance.

On Wall Street, it holds a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating. Of the 35 analysts covering the stock, 23 rate it a "Strong Buy," two say it is a "Moderate Buy," seven say it is a "Hold," one rates it a "Moderate Sell," and two suggest a "Strong Sell."

On the date of publication, Sushree Mohanty did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com