Jim Cramer Saw Copper Reaching $100, Yet One Trader Bought the Drop

Jim Cramer Saw Copper Reaching $100, Yet One Trader Bought the Drop

Joel South

Fri, September 4, 2026 at 9:49 PM GMT+3 5 min read

Quick Read

• FCX failed Cramer's $75 breakout and dropped 6%, yet Kevin Simpson bought FCX and AEM citing copper's role in AI electrification demand.

• FCX posted a fourth straight EPS beat with realized copper at $5.78 per pound, up from $4.44 a year earlier, with management projecting up to $20 billion EBITDA at $7 copper.

• Kevin Simpson named one explicit exit condition: any Fed rate hike in September, October, or December would invalidate his entire commodities thesis.

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On the August 31 Mad Money "Off the Charts" segment with Bob Lang, Jim Cramer laid out a copper roadmap. Working the technicals on Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX), Cramer said "if 75 and change can break out, it goes to $80. That would be terrific. It's smooth sailing then to "if 75 and change can break out, it goes to $80. That would be terrific. It's smooth sailing then to $100."00." He added that the volume behind the copper miners meant "this rally is the real deal."

The breakout level failed almost immediately. FCX closed at $75.74 on August 31, the exact level Cramer flagged, then slid 4.2% to $72.56 by September 3. Over the past week the stock is down 6.66% to $73.20. The one-year chart still shows a 59.91% gain, so this is a pullback inside a powerful uptrend.

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Kevin Simpson Buys the Drop and Names His Kill Switch

Kevin Simpson of Capital Wealth Planning added to both Freeport-McMoRan and Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE:AEM) into the pullback on CNBC's Halftime Report, extending a hard commodities theme he started the prior week with CF Industries (NYSE:CF). His reasoning for favoring copper over gold: "you've got an application for them with respect to electrification. If you believe in the data center build out." That buildout runs on more than chips: we rounded up seven of the power, cooling, and infrastructure suppliers behind it in a free report on the AI infrastructure trade.

Simpson publicly named his macro kill switch: "If we get a rate hike in September, October, December, then forget the gold trade. I mean I'm completely off base with this," he said. That is a rare admission of a specific condition that would invalidate the trade.

Copper Bull Case Freeport Is Selling

Freeport's numbers explain why Cramer and Simpson are aligned. In Q1 2026, FCX reported adjusted EPS of $0.57 versus $0.47 expected on revenue of $6.23 billion, up 12.2% year over year, with a realized copper price of $5.78 per pound versus $4.44 a year earlier. It was FCX's fourth consecutive EPS beat.

On the Q2 conference call, CEO Kathleen Quirk said "as we look forward, it is clear the market will require additional copper supplies to meet growing demand." Freeport modeled 2027-2028 EBITDA at roughly roughly $13 billion at $5 copper and $20 billion at $7 copper3 billion at $5 copper and $20 billion at $7 copper, with each 10-cent move in copper worth about $390 million in annual EBITDA. Details are in the company's Q1 2026 8-K filing.

The macro tailwinds are real. The USGS added copper to the Critical Minerals list in November 2025, and S&P Global projects copper demand reaching 42 million metric tons by 2040, a 50% increase driven by electrification, AI data centers, and defense. Sell-side analysts carry an average price target of $72.05 on FCX, which the stock has already exceeded.

Gold and Fertilizer Legs of Simpson's Trade

Agnico Eagle is a pure gold play. Q2 2026 delivered adjusted EPS of $3.07 on revenue of $3.80 billion, up 35% year over year, with realized gold at $4,483 per ounce, close to today's spot price near $4,418. AEM is still up 36.23% over the past month at $204.71 even after this week's 4.76% pullback.

CF Industries has gained 9.56% since August 28 and is up 76.88% year to date.

What to Watch Next

The trade hinges on two factors. First, the Grasberg ramp. Freeport targets roughly 65% of capacity in H2 2026, 80% by mid-2027, and near full capacity by end of 2027. Second, the Fed. Simpson has told the market exactly which outcome breaks his thesis. If copper holds the $5.78 realized level and rate cuts stay on the table, Cramer's path to $100 stays alive. If not, the $75 breakout that failed on August 31 becomes a warning shot for the broader thesis.

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