Boeing's Free Cash Flow Turned Positive. Here's What Has to Happen Next for the Turnaround to Stick.
Rich Smith, The Motley Fool
Mon, September 7, 2026 at 1:26 PM GMT+3 5 min read
For six straight quarters, from the beginning of 2024 all the way through mid-2025, Boeing (NYSE: BA) stock couldn't catch a break. Production volumes were crippled in the wake of the Alaska Airlines door blowout, airplanes piled up, losses mounted, and free cash flow dried up. Every single quarter, Boeing lost money and burned cash -- $12.4 billion in total GAAP losses, and $16.8 billion in negative free cash flow.
But then, a miracle happened.
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By mid-2025, Boeing had mostly righted the ship, stabilized its supply chain, and resolved its quality-control issues. Q2 2025 saw Boeing deliver more airplanes in a single quarter than it had ever done since 2018. Revenue rose, losses shrank, and by Q 2025, free cash flow had turned positive again. While GAAP profitability has remained elusive since, in three of the past four quarters, the aerospace giant has generated positive free cash flow -- $631 million generated last quarter alone -- laying the groundwork for a return to consistent profitability in the future.
Now Boeing just needs to stick the landing.
Boeing has a plan
After the Alaska Airlines debacle, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration ordered Boeing to slow down production and ensure each plane was shipshape before delivery. Boeing was initially instructed to take its time and build no more than 38 of its 737 airliners per month, a limit later raised to 42 planes. The company is currently seeking permission to accelerate that rate to 47 planes per month, with plans to increase it to 52, and eventually 63, planes per month.
More planes produced should translate into more planes delivered -- and more cash collected on delivery. Analysts polled by S&P Global Market Intelligence forecast Boeing to generate more than $2.3 billion in free cash flow this year, growing to $6.2 billion in 2027, $9.8 billion in 2028, $13 billion in 2029, and $15 billion in 2030.
Yes, you read that right. Boeing's probably going to return to full-year positive FCF this year, grow that dramatically over the next five years, and even then still be growing free cash flow at a healthy 15% per year.
Assuming all goes as planned, Boeing is trading today at just 11 times its projected FCF five years from now.
What needs to happen next
What does Boeing need to do to make this happen? The good news here is that the issues that upset Boeing's apple cart last time around -- botched introduction of new products -- aren't likely to arise over the next five years, because Boeing doesn't plan to introduce any completely new "clean sheet" models during this period.
New variants of the 737 are undergoing flight tests and certification, however, as is a larger 777-9 airliner, and those have the potential to cause problems. But so long as Boeing keeps a tight focus on quality control, it should have a smooth flight from barely positive free cash flow today to massively profitable $15 billion annual FCF in 2030.
Key to this effort will be taking control over the company's Spirit Aerosystems subsidiary, its supplier of 737 fuselages -- and the company responsible for building the specific 737 that blew out over Oregon in 2024 -- and also turning that business profitable. As The Wall Street Journal reported last week, Boeing's $4.7 billion repurchase of Spirit last year actually cost Boeing closer to $10.3 billion once debt and obligations to perform "money pit" contracts are factored in.
This obstacle isn't insurmountable for a company that may soon make $15 billion a year in cash profit. More importantly, fixing Spirit's quality issues is key to Boeing being allowed to increase production to reach that $15 billion goal -- but it will be a near-term drag on financial results.
What else Boeing needs to do
And Boeing's to-do list doesn't end there; it doesn't end with the Commercial business.
As I pointed out last month, Boeing's defense business is once again profitable, and recently booked a major $131.2 billion contract to upgrade global F-15 fighter jet fleets. Once a headwind for Boeing, the defense business could now become a second tailwind as positive profit margins begin to turn a growing revenue stream into a second source of profit.
For this to play out perfectly, Boeing needs to avoid the temptation to underbid competitors to win big Pentagon projects, such as the 2011 KC-X Tanker project, which is still racking up losses to this day. Boeing should also probably abandon its ill-fated Starliner spacecraft program, which still isn't flying, and is looking increasingly obsolete as SpaceX works to make its Starship spacecraft operational.
So, what does Boeing need to do to ensure its turnaround sticks? Keep doing the things that make it money, and stop doing the things that lose it money. Ultimately, it's as simple as that.
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Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Boeing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Boeing's Free Cash Flow Turned Positive. Here's What Has to Happen Next for the Turnaround to Stick. was originally published by The Motley Fool
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