‘The pessimists are wrong’: Fox News tax expert says big refunds signal a strong economy, but is he missing something?

‘The pessimists are wrong’: Fox News tax expert says big refunds signal a strong economy, but is he missing something?

Christy Bieber

Sun, September 6, 2026 at 2:15 PM GMT+3 8 min read

Moneywise and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue through links in the content below.

Many Americans are feeling bearish about the economy, with May's Economic Confidence Index hitting the lowest level since 2022. While the numbers have rebounded slightly to -39 in August from -45 in May, consumer confidence remains low (1).

But some Americans are more optimistic than others, and Julio Gonzalez, founder of Engineered Tax Services, is one of them, writing in a Sept. 3 Fox News op-ed that "the pessimists are wrong, and the numbers prove it (2)."

Top Picks

• Jeff Bezos backs a platform that lets anyone invest in rental homes for as little as $100 — 6 ways to build wealth like a landlord without actually being one

• JPMorgan sees gold hitting $5,000/oz by Q4 — and savvy investors are protecting their wealth with a tax-advantaged Gold IRA. Get your free guide from Priority Gold

• The tax breaks in Trump's 'big beautiful bill' expire after 2028. Here are 4 moves to make before the window closes

Gonzalez wrote that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), signed into law by President Trump in 2025, contributed to strong economic growth, as evidenced by increased business investment and a $43 billion increase in IRS tax refunds in the 2026 tax filing season (3).

"Anyone still calling this economy weak isn't paying attention to the right indicators," he wrote.

The op-ed cited key OBBBA changes allowing companies to write off more investments upfront — including the permanent restoration of the 100% first-year depreciation deduction (4) and a higher Section 179 deduction limit (5) — as catalysts for recent corporate expansion. Data backs this up, with employers planning hiring increases (6) in the second half of the year and U.S. business activity in August surging to the highest level in 52 months (7).

However, large IRS refunds aren't necessarily a sign of a strong economy, and Gonzalez didn't mention that refunds were abnormally large in part because the IRS didn't adjust withholding tables after OBBBA's passage, despite applying the law retroactively (8). This means employers continued to withhold taxes without consideration of deduction and rate changes, resulting in too much being withheld from workers' checks.

Regardless, large refunds and corporate investments tell only one part of the story.

The AI boom and large capital investments in data centers account for a significant share of the increase in business investment (9). Income gains in recent years have been concentrated among low- and high-income Americans, with the middle class not getting a large enough share of the pie (10).

Some economists describe this as a K-shaped economy, with different parts of the economy moving in opposite directions, as wealthy households thrive while lower-income groups struggle (11).

Large tax refund checks may also have worsened inflation by providing an additional influx of cash (12) for many families all at once, driving up demand. And many of the tax breaks driving these refunds for individuals are also temporary and expected to expire in 2028 (13).

Ultimately, both optimists and pessimists about America's current economic state can find data to support their positions, which is why it's so important to have a rock-solid financial plan and investments you trust, even during turbulent economic times.

Make the most of your refund

Regardless of whether you believe big tax refunds are a sign of an economic boom, it's clear the OBBBA resulted in larger refunds in 2026 and will likely do so again in the upcoming filing season, with many key deductions remaining in effect until 2028, including a $6,000 senior deduction for eligible Americans 65 and over.

Taking full advantage of a large refund requires a precise approach to ensure you aren't leaving money on the table — or triggering an accidental audit.

This is especially critical for retirees with a portfolio of $250,000 or more. When larger portfolios are involved, tax decisions become less about filing and more about strategy. In these cases, working with a financial advisor can help reduce costly oversights.

Platforms like WiserAdvisor can connect you with vetted professionals who specialize in this kind of planning.

How it works:

1. Share your goals: You provide a few details about your savings, retirement timeline and your investment portfolio

2. Get matched for free: WiserAdvisor scours its network to match you with up to three vetted, reputable advisors who fit your specific needs

3. Consult for free: You can set up a no-obligation consultation with your matches to see who is the best fit for your long-term goals

Note: WiserAdvisor is a matching service and does not provide financial advice directly. All matched advisors are third parties, and specific financial results are not guaranteed.

Read More: Millionaires under 43 hold only 32% of their wealth in stocks. Here's where their money is actually going

Bet on America's best

Some economic data support Gonzalez's view of the economy, including his position that companies are thriving. Fellow optimists can bet on American business by choosing ETFs that provide exposure to the S&P 500 or to specific sectors of the economy. That way you can tap into America's best and brightest companies all at once.

ETFs make it easy and affordable to gain exposure to equities, and even small amounts can grow over time with tools like Acorns, an app that automatically invests your spare change.

You can sign up for Acorns in minutes by linking your cards. Acorns will round up each purchase to the nearest dollar and invest the difference — your spare change — into a diversified portfolio.

With Acorns, as little as $5 opens up the door to investing in a dividend-paying ETF. And, if you sign up today, Acorns will add a $20 bonus to help you begin your investment journey — provided you set up a small recurring contribution.

Hedge your bets

If you're a pessimist about the economy or simply concerned about inflation and continued economic uncertainty, real estate investing can provide a hedge against inflation and stock market declines as part of a well-diversified portfolio.

The good news is that there are options to add this asset to your portfolio without spending your weekends vetting tenants and fixing faucets at your rental property.

Mogul allows fractional ownership of single-family rental properties that provide monthly rental income, tax benefits, and real-time appreciation. The platform focuses on fractional shares in blue-chip real estate.

Former Goldman Sachs real estate investors founded mogul to democratize real estate investing, allowing those without large deposits to own a stake in blue-chip rental properties.

Every property has been carefully vetted to confirm it's likely to provide a minimum 12% return even in a downside scenario, and each investment is secured by a real property held in a standalone Propco LLC. Offerings often sell out in hours, and the barrier to entry is affordable, with minimum investments ranging from $15,000 to $40,000 per property.

Getting started is quick and easy. You can sign up for an account and then browse available properties. Once you verify your information with their team, you can invest like a mogul in just a few clicks.

If you'd prefer to invest in vacation homes or rental properties instead, Arrived is another option. Investment amounts can start at just $100, meaning it's easy to give it a try. You can earn a passive income stream without ever hiring a cleaning crew or fielding a phone call from an irate renter. Arrived also offers a secondary market, so you can rebalance your holdings if you need to.

To get started, simply browse through their selection of vetted properties, each picked for its potential appreciation and income generation.

Even better, for a limited time, when you open an account and add $1,000 or more, Arrived will credit your account with a 1% match.

What To Read Next

• A single line on your car insurance policy could be inflating your premium by up to 30% — here's what to change

• Dave Ramsey warns nearly 50% of Americans are making 1 big Social Security mistake. Here's what it is and 3 simple steps to fix it ASAP

• Your Social Security 'Trump Bump' in 2027 will be one of the biggest in 25 years — but there's a serious catch no one's talking about

• Dave Ramsey says this 1 indulgent purchase stops Americans from becoming wealthy. Here's what he recommends instead

Join 250,000+ readers and get Moneywise's best stories and exclusive interviews first — clear insights curated and delivered weekly. Subscribe now.

Article Sources

We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our ethics and guidelines.

Gallup (); Fox News (); Congress.gov (); Internal Revenue Service (), (); PR Newswire (); CFO Dive (); Tax Foundation (); The New York Times (); Bureau of Economic Analysis (); U.S. Bank (); USA Today (); Fidelity ()

This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.