Wall Street Sağlam Dururken Oracle Hisseleri Düşmeye Devam Ediyor - Kim Haklı?

Oracle Stock Keeps Falling While Wall Street Holds Firm—Who’s Right?

Chris Lange

Tue, September 8, 2026 at 2:34 PM GMT+3 6 min read

Quick Read

• Oracle (ORCL) trades 34% below Wall Street's $242 consensus target despite $638 billion in contracted backlog and 93% Cloud Infrastructure revenue growth.

• Oracle has derated harder than Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet over the past year despite leading the AI peer group in RPO growth rate.

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Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) currently trades at $158.78, while Wall Street's consensus price target sits at $242.05. The gap between those two numbers is unusually wide for a mega-cap, and it is the entire reason to look closely at this name right now.

Oracle has become one of the largest AI infrastructure builders in the world, with a cloud business scaling rapidly on the back of multi-year contracts from major AI customers. Cloud Infrastructure revenue grew 93% in the fiscal fourth quarter, and Remaining Performance Obligations, the contracted backlog investors watch most closely, jumped 363% year over year to $638 billion.

The dislocation between price and target has widened through the summer. Whether Wall Street is stubbornly clinging to stale targets, or whether the market has overshot to the downside, is the question worth answering before Oracle reports later this week.

Cloud Buildout Costs Turned Investors Cautious

The most immediate driver of the derating has been the sheer scale of Oracle's capital spending program. Free cash flow for fiscal 2026 came in at negative $23.69 billion, on capital expenditures of $55.663 billion. Total liabilities reached $218.703 billion, and management guided to roughly $40 billion in fresh debt and equity funding across fiscal 2027, including a $20 billion at-the-market equity issuance already underway. Net cash capex for fiscal 2027 is expected around $70 billion.

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The Q2 fiscal 2026 report in December set the tone, sending shares down roughly 13% on a revenue miss even though non-GAAP EPS beat by 32.43%. From there, investors kept selling. The 52-week trading range runs from a high of $341.82 to a low of $114.5, showing how violently sentiment has swung.

This has looked like a sector-wide reassessment of how the AI buildout will actually be paid for, rather than a company-specific fumble. Oracle sits at the epicenter of that debate because its capex commitments are the most aggressive relative to its size in the group. All of that spend has to be powered, cooled, and networked by somebody, and we pulled together seven of those suppliers in a free AI infrastructure report.

Why the Sell Side Is Sticking With $242

Analysts have not blinked. The consensus target still sits at $242.05, and the ratings distribution skews decisively bullish: 8 Strong Buy, 28 Buy, 7 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell.

The bull case rests on the $638 billion RPO backlog. Management expects 12% of RPO to be recognized in the next 12 months and another 34% between 13 and 36 months. Fiscal 2027 revenue is guided to $90 billion with non-GAAP EPS of $8.05. Long-term targets call for a 31% revenue CAGR and 28% EPS CAGR through fiscal 2030. Multicloud AI Database revenue grew 404% in Q4 alone, and global GPU utilization sat at 97.5%.

Estimate revisions have leaned upward. Over the trailing 30 days, fiscal 2027 EPS estimates saw 21 upward revisions versus 12 downward, and fiscal 2028 saw 20 upward against 6 downward. That is a sell side digging in.

Oracle Fell Harder Than the Hyperscaler Group

The natural comparison set is Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, IBM, and Salesforce, all of which carry exposure to the same AI capex debate. None has derated to the extent Oracle has over the past year. Snowflake, the closer pure-play cloud data peer, has traded on its own growth-rate concerns rather than mirroring Oracle's move. Oracle is the name the market has punished hardest for the funding math, even though its RPO growth rate is the fastest in the peer group.

Backlog Is Massive, Cash Burn Is Massive Too

Oracle currently trades at $158.78 as of the most recent Friday close, with the sell side setting an average target of $242.05. The ratings tally comes from 44 covering analysts. Shares are down 27.98% over the past year and 17.74% year to date, leaving Oracle a meaningful laggard against an S&P 500 that has posted modest gains over the same stretch. Precise index performance aside, the underperformance is not close.

Oracle reports fiscal Q1 2027 results on September 10 after the close. Guidance calls for revenue growth of 27% to 29% and non-GAAP EPS between $1.72 and $1.76. Analyst targets are one data point rather than gospel, and a soft report could pull them lower in a hurry.

Buy the Backlog, but Only if Cash Flow Confirms

The bull-case checkpoints for this week's report are RPO converting on schedule, GPU utilization holding near 97.5%, and gross margin compression contained to what management already flagged. The path back to $242 runs through cash flow visibility and backlog conversion.

The bear case builds if the quarter reveals slippage in datacenter delivery, or if the $40 billion financing plan comes in more dilutive than expected. A negative $23.69 billion free cash flow number is a lot to underwrite on faith.

On balance, I lean constructive. The backlog is real, the demand is real, and the sell side has had months to cut targets and has chosen to raise numbers instead. Into Thursday's report, the setup favors the patient buyer more than the seller chasing a broken chart.

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