Top Chip Analyst: Memory Prices Won’t Ease ‘For Years’ and Even Apple Can’t Dodge It

Omor Ibne Ehsan

Wed, September 9, 2026 at 8:10 PM GMT+3 6 min read

Quick Read

Micron surged 662% over the past year while Apple faces margin erosion from memory costs Tim Cook called a "100-year flood."
Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung control 90% of the memory market, and supply will remain tight beyond calendar 2027.
Micron locked in roughly $100 billion in minimum-price customer agreements with floor prices above prior peak gross margins.
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Paul Meeks, head of technology research at Freedom Capital Markets, went on CNBC's Squawk Box on September 8, 2026, ahead of Apple's iPhone launch, and warned against the usual autumn optimism around consumer electronics. He argued that the memory pricing spike is structural, that Apple cannot fully absorb it, and that even a strong product cycle may not rescue the supplier chain.

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The three names in the middle of that story are Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), and NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA). Micron sells the DRAM and NAND everyone else needs. Apple is the buyer being squeezed.

NVIDIA is both a customer whose AI GPUs need enormous quantities of HBM and a beneficiary of the same AI wave starving the industry of capacity. Meeks said on air, "I don't think that we're going to see much relief in the memory market for years. If you take a look at Micron, for example, their peak EPS is not expected for two more fiscal years."

Why Meeks Won't Trust the iPhone Launch Cycle

Meeks told CNBC, "I'm afraid even with mighty Apple that I'll believe it when I see it." His caution rests on a specific observation: Apple's suppliers have badly lagged Apple itself over the past year.

Apple shares are up 33.43% over the trailing year and 16.64% year to date at $316.22. Solid, but a normal consumer-cycle result.

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Micron has moved on a different scale entirely, up 662.12% over the trailing year and 250.68% year to date, closing at $1,000.26. The supplier is where the money has been made.

NVIDIA sits in the middle, up 34.29% over the past year at $225.73, because AI demand is offsetting the same cost pressure hurting Apple.

How Memory Costs Reach the Income Statement

Meeks put it plainly: "Even a company with the heft of an Apple has to pay more cost of goods sold, goods sold goes up, gross margins go down. And it's a real problem."

Apple confirmed the mechanic on its own call. Tim Cook described the environment as "a 100-year flood on the memory pricing with exponential increases in memory prices" and said Apple raised iPad and Mac prices in response.

NVIDIA is being hit too. Colette Kress told analysts, "we are experiencing extreme pricing conditions in memory" and guided gross margin to bottom in the 71% to 72% range before recovering.

Micron sits on the other side of that trade. Its fiscal Q3 2026 gross margin reached 84.6%, and management guided fiscal Q4 revenue to $50 billion with gross margin around 86%, per its SEC filing.

Inside the Memory Oligopoly

Meeks said Micron, SK Hynix (NASDAQ:SKHY) and Samsung together control approximately 90% of the memory market, and Chinese entrants are only beginning to appear.

Supply cannot expand quickly. Sanjay Mehrotra told analysts that "DRAM and NAND industry demand continues to significantly exceed industry supply" and that tight conditions will "persist beyond calendar 2027."

Micron has locked that in through 16 Strategic Customer Agreements carrying roughly $100 billion in minimum-price revenue, with floor prices above the company's prior peak gross margins.

NVIDIA has done the same thing on its side of the table, signing a multiyear technology partnership with SK Hynix and posting $279 billion in supply obligations largely tied to memory procurement for Vera Rubin.

Where Meeks Wants to Be Positioned

Meeks told CNBC, "I much prefer there any applications having to do with consumer electronics, at least at this point," and named CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) and Applied Digital (NASDAQ:APLD) as his preferred AI data center exposures. He holds positions in NVIDIA and memory names, including Micron and SK Hynix, through ETFs.

NVIDIA's fiscal Q2 2027 data center revenue reached $89.02 billion, up 117% year over year, and Jensen Huang said: "AI has reached its inflection point." The buildout behind those numbers has to be powered, cooled, and networked by someone, which is the subject of a free report on seven AI infrastructure suppliers that aren't chipmakers.

Apple's forward estimates for fiscal 2027 have moved the other way, carrying 6 upward EPS revisions against 23 downward revisions over the trailing 30 days.

Micron estimates are moving in the opposite direction. The fiscal 2027 EPS consensus has climbed to 155.0252 from 102.7224 ninety days ago, reflecting the tight-supply thesis Meeks described.

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Supply is structurally constrained through at least calendar 2027, the largest customers have signed take-or-pay agreements with floor prices above prior-cycle peaks, and Meeks thinks peak EPS is still two more fiscal years away.

The risk you accept is timing. If Chinese entrants ramp faster than expected or hyperscaler capex slows, the SCAs cushion the downside, although the stock has priced in a lot after a 662.12% run.

The setup for Micron looks constructive on the data. Contracted revenue, structural scarcity, and rising forward estimates give a supply-side story that Apple's cost pressure and NVIDIA's supply obligations both confirm from opposite directions.

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