Could Marvell Be the Next AI Stock to Deliver 100% Upside?

Could Marvell Be the Next AI Stock to Deliver 100% Upside?

Vandita Jadeja

Wed, September 9, 2026 at 7:00 PM GMT+3 5 min read

Quick Read

• MRVL earns a BUY with a $282 price target as custom silicon revenue is set to more than double in fiscal 2028, supporting a $354 bull case.

• AVGO trades at 19x and NVDA at 25x forward earnings, making MRVL's implied 68x P/E aggressive yet justified by a faster growth trajectory.

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Our Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) price target lands well above where shares closed Tuesday, and the setup into October's Investor Day looks constructive. With AI infrastructure spending accelerating and custom silicon revenue set to more than double next year, the risk/reward still favors the bulls.

Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Marvell is $281.53, implying 24.9% upside from the current $225.41 close. Our recommendation is a buy with a 90% confidence level.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary

A 242% Year and a Fresh Guide Higher

MRVL has been one of the year's best AI trades. Shares are up 165.63% year to date and 242.26% over the past year, off a 52-week low near $66.

Q2 fiscal 2027, reported August 27, delivered revenue of $2.73 billion, up 37% year over year, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.94 beating the $0.928 consensus. Data Center revenue hit $2.17 billion, now 79% of the mix. Management guided Q3 to $3.15 billion and lifted the fiscal 2027 outlook to roughly $12 billion2 billion.

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Why Bulls See a Breakout to $350+

The bull thesis rests on custom silicon. Management expects the custom business to more than double year over year in fiscal 2028 and accelerate significantly in fiscal 2029. The expanded Google agreement covers inference accelerators, storage controllers, NICs, memory interface controllers, and near-memory compute.

CEO Matt Murphy called the total opportunity "just massive for Marvell and game-changing." Add ramping 1.6T optics, 51.2T scale-out switching, and scale-up optics that Murphy said is "much larger than we thought just a quarter ago," and the bull-case path reaches $353.55 in a year, roughly 57% upside. Consensus backs this with 8 Strong Buys and 31 Buys.

What Could Go Wrong

Bear risks include heavy hyperscaler concentration, $4.963 billion in long-term debt, and the Google warrant introducing up to 7% dilution. Custom's Q3 ramp will pressure gross margin (guided to 57.5% to 58.5%), and stock-based comp jumped to $207.6 million in Q1.

Our bear-case path drifts to $214.89. The margin pressure reflects heavy R&D on Celestial AI and XConn integration, and the warrant functions as customer lock-in. Management expects non-GAAP operating margin to enter the 38% to 40% range by Q4.

How Marvell Compares to Broadcom, NVIDIA, and AMD

Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) is the direct custom ASIC competitor, trading at a forward P/E of 19 with a $1.7 trillion market cap. Broadcom's cheaper multiple makes MRVL's 68x implied P/E look aggressive, but Marvell's smaller base gives it more room to compound.

NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) sets the AI benchmark at a forward P/E of 25 on a $5.56 trillion cap. That NVDA trades cheaper than Marvell on forward earnings is the strongest argument for caution, though Marvell's growth acceleration is fresher.

AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) trades at a forward P/E of 30 with 50.1% quarterly revenue growth. Against this cohort, our 24/7 Wall St. price target looks reasonable.

Marvell Price Prediction 2026-2030

The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $281.53 with a buy rating and 90% confidence stands. The raised fiscal 2028 guide of roughly 50% year-over-year growth, alongside the custom silicon inflection, anchors the thesis.

The key catalyst to watch is the October 6 Investor Day, particularly whether it validates a fiscal 2029 custom revenue trajectory above the prior $10 billion plus0 billion plus framework. Risks to monitor include softening hyperscaler capex commentary and Q3 gross margin landing below the guided floor.

These projections assume Marvell continues executing on its custom silicon roadmap and AI networking rollout. Significant upside or downside could come from hyperscaler capex shifts or the pace of the scale-up optics ramp.

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