Scott Bessent Thinks Norway May Trade Treasuries for Assets Like Fannie Mae. What That Actually Means for FNMA Stock.

Ebube Jones

Thu, September 10, 2026 at 5:44 PM GMT+3 5 min read

FNMA +1.05%

Pile of money by Atlantagreg via iStock

Just days ago, the world's largest sovereign wealth fund quietly floated one of the more consequential portfolio shifts in fixed-income markets this year. On Sept. 4, Norges Bank Investment Management, the manager of Norway's $2.3 trillion Government Pension Fund Global, proposed a major overhaul of its fixed-income benchmark.

The plan would slash the government-bond weighting from 70% to 50%, potentially unloading roughly $75–80 billion of U.S. Treasuries.

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In their place, the fund wants greater exposure to non-government U.S. debt, particularly agency mortgage-backed securities whose credit quality it described as "close to that of U.S. government bonds."

That technical reallocation landed amid elevated Treasury yields of 4.8%, ongoing administration efforts to support the mortgage market, and remarks attributed to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. He suggests Norway could be looking to "upgrade" parts of its American asset base, swapping plain Treasuries for assets like Fannie Mae (FNMA) stock.

Whether the comment was deliberate signaling or casual speculation, the timing has pushed Fannie Mae back into the conversation.

So, is Bessent's Norway comment a genuine catalyst for FNMA or merely a bullish-sounding reference to Fannie's mortgage securities? Let's take a closer look.

Fannie Mae's Earnings Strength

Washington, D.C.-based Federal National Mortgage Association, or popularly known as Fannie Mae (FNMA), a $6.93 billion government-sponsored enterprise, purchases mortgages from lenders, provides credit guarantees, and packages loans into mortgage-backed securities that help finance U.S. home purchases, refinancings, and rental housing. It remains under federal conservatorship nearly 18 years after the 2008 crisis.

Fannie Mae shares closed at $6.08 on Sept. 8, marking a year-to-date (YTD) decline of 43.34% and trading 56.54% below their 52-week high.

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Its trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 2.34x and price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 0.04x stand in sharp contrast to the sector medians of 11.84x and 3.15x, respectively.

Fannie Mae reported second-quarter results on July 29, generating $4.0 billion in net income, up from $3.7 billion in the first quarter. This was its highest quarterly profit in more than a year and lifted net worth to $116.5 billion as of June 30.

Its $7.6 billion in net revenue came primarily from guaranty-fee income generated across a $4.1 trillion guaranty book. FNMA's single-family segment accounted for $6.3 billion of revenue from a $3.6 trillion conventional guaranty book.

Fannie Mae's multifamily business contributed another $1.3 billion in revenue from a $544.6 billion guaranty book. Their non-interest expense fell to $2.1 billion from $2.2 billion, largely because Multifamily recorded other income rather than other expenses. Other losses declined by $133 million as investment gains partly offset fair-value losses.

That operating scale translated into $125 billion of mortgage-market liquidity during the quarter. It supported approximately 201,000 home purchases, 117,000 refinancings, and 99,000 rental units.

Bessent's Norway Remark Is a Franchise Signal

Bessent's remarks are worth taking seriously because they point to a real portfolio case for Fannie-linked mortgage securities. Norway is investigating how to earn more from U.S. fixed-income assets without moving too far down the credit-quality ladder. That is where agency mortgage-backed securities enter the picture.

Norges Bank has recommended cutting government bonds to 50% of its benchmark from 70%. The proposal would also add securitized debt and government-related bonds, with mortgage-backed securities representing roughly 13% of the revised index. That would be a meaningful change from the fund's current benchmark, which carries no MBS allocation.

For a $2.3 trillion fund, agency MBS offer scale as well as yield. Norway estimates the market had about $7.5 trillion outstanding at the end of 2025, with average daily turnover near $350 billion. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac (FMCC), and Ginnie Mae guarantee these securities, giving them government-linked credit quality while investors earn additional yield for taking prepayment risk.

Fannie sits directly in that chain. A deeper and more liquid market for its guaranteed securities would reinforce the value of its securitization and credit-guarantee platform. It could also improve mortgage funding conditions, although any benefit to Fannie's earnings would depend on mortgage volumes, guarantee-fee economics, and credit performance.

The company's latest non-performing loan sale also shows its continued focus on mortgage-credit discipline. Fannie announced a sale of approximately 943 delinquent loans with about $207.4 million in unpaid principal balance. This sale would remove troubled loans from Fannie's portfolio and help manage downside risk within the housing-finance system.

Still, this is not the same as Norway buying FNMA shares. Norway has proposed a benchmark adjustment, not an allocation to Fannie's common stock. The plan also remains subject to a response from Norway's Finance Ministry and would be implemented gradually if approved.

Wall Street Sees Room for FNMA Stock

The next checkpoint for Fannie Mae arrives on Nov. 4, when it is scheduled to report third-quarter results. Analysts expect $0.66 in earnings per share for the September quarter. That would edge above the $0.65 reported in the prior-year period, implying modest 1.54% year-over-year growth.

Bill Ackman has taken a much more aggressive view. Earlier this year, the billionaire investor wrote on X, formerly Twitter, that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were "stupidly cheap," calling the opportunity asymmetric. He added that the stocks could become 10x investments and that such an outcome could arrive soon.

Wall Street's outlook reflects measured optimism. The consensus rating is a "Hold," based on eight surveyed analysts, while their average $9.38 target suggests 54.3% upside from FNMA's closing price on Sept. 8.

Conclusion

Bessent's point has merit, but it does not change the FNMA story overnight. Norway could become another long-term buyer of Fannie-backed mortgage securities, which would be a positive for the broader housing-finance market. That is not the same as buying FNMA shares. For now, the stock still needs a real policy breakthrough. Until then, any upside from Norway's move is likely to be gradual rather than game-changing.