Trump'ın ticaret politikasını Federal Rezerv faiz indirimlerine bağlama önerisi uzun vadeli ekonomik zorluklarla karşı karşıya kalabilir

Trump's proposal to tie trade policy to Federal Reserve rate cuts could face long-term economic challenges

Rinna Diamantakos

Fri, September 11, 2026 at 1:40 PM GMT+3 4 min read

President Donald Trump is once again pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, this time threatening to halt trade with some of America's biggest partners. The comments come as the economy faces persistent inflation and affordability concerns.

The president made the threat in a Truth Social post, responding to the stronger-than-expected job report.

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"LOWER THE RATE OR I'LL STOP TRADING WITH COUNTRIES WITH WHICH WE HAVE A DEFICIT," Trump wrote. "IT'S BETTER THAN TARIFFS! The Fed Board, with its great new leader, must get smart — BE PATRIOTS for a change."

The U.S. ran a $1.2 trillion trade deficit last year, according to federal trade data and currently has a trade deficit with over 100 countries, including major partners like China, Mexico and Canada. It's unclear whether Trump's comment is a credible threat, but stopping trade with these countries would have an immediate effect on the supply chain and overall economy.

Under pressure

The Trump administration has been pressuring the Fed to lower interest rates, arguing that high rates will put the U.S. at an economic disadvantage compared to countries with lower rates.

Fed officials have been sending mixed signals ahead of the decision on Sept. 15. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and other Fed members have signaled they are open to raising rates if inflation remains high, despite Trump's pressure.

"We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do," Warsh said in remarks he delivered at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole symposium.

The central bank has kept rates steady all year, with inflation sitting well above the Fed's 2% target. But Warsh has not specified what exactly he wants to see — and where inflation needs to go — for him to raise interest rates.

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Golden years?

While Trump wants rates to come down, that may not be the best outcome for everyday consumers.

Higher rates would increase borrowing costs, impacting everything from car loans, credit card debt and mortgages at a time when affordability is already weighing on households. However, raising rates could help rein in spending and borrowing, which will cool the economy and ease inflation.

Experts say this could help lower the cost of everyday expenses, like groceries and gas, which have been at the center of the affordability crisis.

"History demonstrates that the most reliable way to restore price stability is to maintain sufficiently restrictive monetary policy until inflation is decisively tamed," Mark Higgins, senior vice president at Index Fund Advisors, told CNBC.

For consumers, the decision is a trade-off: higher rates can make mortgages, credit cards and other loans more expensive, while lower rates could provide relief for borrowers but risk keeping everyday prices high.

When the wind blows

Economists have also been divided on what they think the Fed will do, with some anticipating a hike this month and others predicting they will remain steady throughout 2026.

Traders have pushed the likelihood of a quarter-point increase to 70%, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, which measures investor sentiment. The jump follows reports showing an increase in wholesale prices in August, as well as a jump in U.S. crude oil prices.

"I do think we're going to see a rate hike. Maybe not at the next meeting but at some time in 2026," Rebel Cole, a professor of finance at Florida Atlantic University who formerly worked at the Federal Reserve, told ABC News. "Inflation won't come down until oil prices do. The Fed is boxed in."

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This article originally appeared on Moneywise.com under the title: Trump's proposal to tie trade policy to Federal Reserve rate cuts could face long-term economic challenges

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