68 Quarters of Growth, Now Stalled: The $0.48 Dividend That Won’t Budge

68 Quarters of Growth, Now Stalled: The $0.48 Dividend That Won’t Budge

Chris Lange

Sat, September 12, 2026 at 8:01 PM GMT+3 3 min read

• ARCC +0.30%

Quick Read

• ARCC has paid $0.48 per quarter for 12 straight quarters, delivering reliable income but zero dividend growth since March 2023.

• Core EPS slipped to $0.47 in both Q1 and Q2 2026, falling below the $0.48 payout as non-accruals climbed to 2.4%.

• Management's $1.38 per share in spillover income buffers the payout, but non-accruals crossing 3% would signal real cut risk.

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Flat at $0.48: Twelve Quarters and Counting

Ares Capital (NASDAQ:ARCC) has paid a regular quarterly dividend of $0.48 per share on every ex-date from March 14, 2023 through the September 15, 2026 record date. That is the operational metric that matters here, more than the headline yield. The next check goes out September 30 to stockholders of record as of September 15.

Why the Flat Line Tells the Real Story

A business development company lends to private middle-market borrowers and, under the Investment Company Act, must distribute most of its taxable income. The large yield is a function of that structure. So the real question is whether the payout is durable and whether it grows. For three years, the answer has been durable, but not growing.

Coverage Is Tight, Credit Is Softening

Core EPS was $0.47 in both Q1 and Q2 2026, a hair below the $0.48 dividend, after $0.50 prints in Q3 and Q4 2025. Non-accruals at cost climbed to 2.4% from 1.8% at year-end 2025. Coverage slipping below the payout is one of the classic setups we flagged in a free guide to spotting dividend traps before the cut. Management points to $988 million, or $1.38 per share, in spillover as a buffer and touts 68 consecutive quarters of stable or increasing payouts.

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What Would Change the Picture

The bullish outlook is that Core EPS re-clears $0.48, non-accruals stabilize, and new commitment yields firm from the 9.1% post-Q3 2025 level. However, non-accruals could push past the 3% historical average and spillover starts funding the base.

Verdict: Reliable Income, Stalled Growth

A flat dividend held across a full credit cycle is a policy statement; the income has been reliable, but it has not kept pace with rising costs.

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