Is Verizon Stock Counting On Money That Has Not Arrived Yet?

Is Verizon Stock Counting On Money That Has Not Arrived Yet?

Mon, September 14, 2026 at 8:36 PM GMT+3 3 min read

Verizon Communications (VZ) has had a good year. The stock returned about 24% over the past twelve months against roughly 19% for the S&P 500, and at about $51 it sits at the top of its one-year range. The turnaround is real. What is not real yet is the revenue meant to pay for it.

Verizon Gave Up Revenue To Compete For Consumer Customers

In mid-June the company changed what it charges for. It scrapped activation and upgrade fees, launched a $45 Simplicity plan that separates the phone subsidy from the price of service, and put mobility and broadband on a single $70 bill under Verizon One.

Management says the direction had already turned before the new proposition really kicked in. Consumer postpaid phone churn fell to 84 basis points in fiscal Q2 2026 from 90 in fiscal Q1 2026, and the company added 184,000 postpaid phone lines and 348,000 broadband customers. Fewer people left, and the promotional cost of winning a consumer customer fell about 15% year over year.

The bill for that shows up on the revenue line. Equipment revenue fell nearly 20%, more than $1.2 billion below the prior year, as upgrade volumes dropped nearly 27%. By the company's own account, that is deliberate, and it has already paid: the adjusted EBITDA margin in fiscal Q2 2026 was the highest Verizon has ever reported. That approach still leaves total revenue for fiscal Q2 2026 at $34.3 billion, down 0.7% year over year.

But Verizon Is Still Waiting On The Revenue That Replaces It

Two things are supposed to fill that gap. Both come with dates attached. Mobility and broadband service revenue grew 2.8% in fiscal Q2 2026, and management has guided it to approach 3% in fiscal Q3 2026 and about 4% in fiscal Q4 2026. Wireless service revenue, the $20.8 billion piece underpinning that $23.4 billion line, fell 0.7% year over year and is guided to be about flat across 2026, which management says implies positive growth in the second half of the year.

The second is further out. Verizon has signed a contract worth more than $1 billion to run dark fiber between a single customer's data centers, and it is retrofitting central offices for edge computing. Management expects that revenue to start arriving in 2027.

And You Are Already Paying The Highest Price Of The Year

The risk here is not an expensive multiple. On sales Verizon sits about 55% of the way up its own ten-year range, which is ordinary. The risk is the order of events. The price has already moved, and the revenue has not.

Revenue over the past twelve months grew 1.4%, against 2.1% over the twelve months before, and the most recent quarter went backwards. The stock has already fallen 17% from peak to trough once inside that same run. What settles it is fiscal Q4 2026 service revenue. A price at the top of its range has little cushion if that number lands short.

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