ASML Fell For a Month Straight: A Prominent Wall Street Ratings Agency Says It Will Return 70% From Today

Alex Sirois

Mon, September 14, 2026 at 2:50 PM GMT+3 7 min read

Quick Read

ASML (ASML) trades 27% below its consensus target of $2,158, while Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon sets a Street-high $2,859 target implying 70% upside.
Peers Applied Materials (AMAT) and KLA (KLAC) fell harder, dropping 17% and 13% respectively over the past month, yet both trade well below consensus targets.
ASML's 2027 EPS consensus surged from $42 to $52 in 90 days on 28 upward revisions, with memory system sales guided to grow over 75% in 2026.
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Shares of ASML (NASDAQ:ASML) currently trade at $1,698.30, while the average Wall Street analyst price target sits at $2,157.87, implying roughly 27% of upside from here.

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ASML is the Dutch photolithography monopoly whose EUV machines are the only tools in the world capable of printing today's most advanced logic and memory chips. TSMC, Samsung, and Intel all depend on ASML to build the AI accelerators, HBM stacks, and mobile processors driving the current cycle. That structural position is why a persistent, month-long slide has drawn attention.

The dislocation matters because one prominent semiconductor analyst thinks the market is missing the picture entirely. Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon sees the stock returning roughly 70% from here.

What Broke a Month-Long Slide

ASML has fallen for roughly a month, shedding 6.17% over the past 30 days from $1,810.07 to current levels. The decline has been measured but persistent, and it has come while the underlying fundamentals have been improving.

Two forces have driven the selling. First, evolving US and Dutch export controls continue to weigh on China exposure, with management guiding China to about 20% of full-year 2026 revenue versus a much higher historical share. Second, the broader semiconductor equipment complex has been rotated out of after a torrid run, with peers falling harder than ASML itself.

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Notably, none of the selling is tied to weak numbers. Q2 revenue came in at $10.65 billion, up 21.3% year over year, and management raised its full-year 2026 guide to €43 billion to €45 billion.

Why Bernstein Is Calling for 70% Upside

Rasgon reiterated a Buy rating and lifted his price target from $2,623 to $2,859, the Street high and roughly 68% above spot. Consensus sits at $2,157.87, well below Bernstein but still implying meaningful upside. Even the midpoint of the range says the stock is dislocated.

The thesis leans on three pillars. ASML's absolute monopoly in EUV and High-NA EUV, tools that run over $350 million per unit with no substitute at the leading edge. An ongoing AI capex supercycle that management is already responding to by planning to add 30% to 2026 low-NA EUV capacity for 2027 and investigating another 30% for 2028 (we profiled seven of the non-chipmaker suppliers riding that same buildout in a free report, here). And an improving mix, with 2026 gross margin guided to 54% to 56% and drifting higher as High-NA scales.

Order flow supports the call. Memory-related net system sales are guided to grow over 75% in 2026, and CEO Christophe Fouquet described DRAM demand as a "perfect storm." Estimates have followed. The 2027 EPS consensus has climbed from $41.49 ninety days ago to $51.72, with 28 upward revisions in the trailing 30 days and none down.

Sentiment is overwhelmingly constructive. Across the covering universe, 6 analysts rate ASML Strong Buy, 32 Buy, 4 Hold, and 1 Sell. Recent activity has skewed toward reiterations and upgrades.

How Applied Materials, Lam, and KLA Stack Up

The chip equipment group sold off together, and ASML actually held up better than any of its US-listed peers over the past month.

Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) has fallen 16.63% over the past month to $456.49, well below its consensus target of $640.89, implying roughly 40% of upside. Ratings skew heavily positive at 4 Strong Buy, 28 Buy, and 7 Hold, though these ratings represent a single input among many.

Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX) trades at $298.22 after slipping 8.55% over the month. Consensus sits at $373.13, roughly 25% above spot. Analysts remain constructive with 4 Strong Buy, 25 Buy, and 6 Hold ratings.

KLA (NASDAQ:KLAC) has been the worst peer performer, down 13.16% over the month to $180.64 post-split. Its consensus target of $233.77 implies about 29% upside. Sentiment tilts positive but carries a heavier Hold cohort at 5 Strong Buy, 14 Buy, and 10 Hold.

On consensus figures alone, Applied Materials shows the widest gap in the group at roughly 40%. Layer in Bernstein's Street-high call, however, and ASML jumps to the top of the peer set at nearly 70%. Either framing points to a dislocated cohort.

Numbers Tell a Divergence Story

ASML currently trades at $1,698.30 against a consensus target of $2,157.87 across a coverage universe of 43 analysts, implying roughly 27% upside on consensus and 68% on Bernstein's high-end call. The analyst ratings breakdown:

Strong Buy: 6
Buy: 32
Hold: 4
Sell: 1

Performance context sharpens the picture. ASML is down 6.17% over the past month while the S&P 500 has declined 1.06% over the same window. Zoom out, however, and the story flips: ASML is up 59.52% year to date versus 12.08% for the S&P 500, and up 112.6% over the past year.

My Take on a 70% Call

The bull thesis holds if AI-driven leading-edge capex persists through 2028 and the export-control ceiling stays roughly where it is today. The bear thesis gains traction if China restrictions widen further, or if peak-cycle sentiment cracks before High-NA EUV becomes the dominant tool.

The bull case is credible. ASML is close to fully booked on low-NA EUV for 2027, memory system sales are guided to grow over 75% this year, and 2027 EPS estimates have moved sharply higher over the past three months. If High-NA adoption inflects and mix pulls gross margin higher, Bernstein's $2,859 does not require heroic assumptions.

The bear case runs through Washington and Beijing. China revenue is already shrinking. Wider controls on installed-base service or DUV would hit the most reliable line in the model. At a trailing PE of 57, multiple compression is the other risk should the AI capex narrative wobble.

My lean is constructive, but sized to the middle of the target range rather than the Street high. A 27% consensus upside from a monopoly with rising bookings and expanding margins is a stronger base case than a 70% moonshot, and it still compares favorably with most of large-cap tech.

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