Polestar (PSNY)’s US Exit Just Showed Up in its Guidance

Polestar (PSNY)’s US Exit Just Showed Up in its Guidance

Fatima Gulzar

Thu, September 17, 2026 at 7:50 PM GMT+3 4 min read

• PSNY +5.89%
• 0175.HK -0.68%

Reuters reported that Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC (NASDAQ:PSNY) cut its full-year 2026 delivery forecast on September 3, noting the fallout from being barred from selling its newer vehicles in the United States.

The Swedish, Geely-backed automaker now expects annual volume growth of low-to-mid single digits, down from a previous forecast of low double digits, implying full-year deliveries of roughly 61,900 to 63,100 vehicles. In June, Polestar became the first automaker forced out of the U.S. market after the Commerce Department denied it authorization to sell model year 2027 and later vehicles under a rule restricting Chinese-controlled vehicle software and data systems. Shares fell as much as 16% on the news.

Second-quarter revenue fell 8% year over year to $727 million, missing estimates. The company recorded about $130 million in U.S. restructuring charges tied to inventory, residual value guarantees, and employee and supplier provisions. Net loss narrowed 55.3% to $459 million, though first-half free cash flow worsened to negative $1.06 billion from negative $787 million a year earlier despite Polestar raising $700 million in fresh equity. CEO Michael Lohscheller said the firm remains "disciplined in our execution and focused on improving the business." Polestar also opened its order book for the new SUV 4, the first of several refreshed models planned over the next few years.

Bull Case

Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC (NASDAQ:PSNY) narrowed its reported net loss significantly, since the company cut its net loss by 55.3% to $459 million even though the prior-year figure included a large impairment charge that makes the comparison less meaningful. The improvement still gives investors some evidence that Polestar can reduce losses as it restructures the business.

The firm also has a major product offensive underway as the firm opened orders for the Polestar 4 SUV. It plans several refreshed models as it seeks to increase demand outside the U.S. market. A broader lineup could give Polestar more opportunities to grow sales and improve its competitive position as the business adjusts to losing its U.S. business.

Polestar is securing funding during a difficult transition. The company raised $700 million in fresh equity during the first half of 2026. It gives management more capital to fund operations and launch new models. Financial support from investors and its parent company gives Polestar more time to execute its turnaround strategy.

Bear Case

Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC (NASDAQ:PSNY)'s U.S. exit carries substantial direct financial costs. The firm had roughly $130 million in restructuring charges during the quarter related to inventory, residual values, and supplier obligations. It adds another burden to an already loss-making business. Losing access to the U.S. market also removes an important source of potential future sales.

Polestar's cash burn continues to worsen despite the recent equity raise. Free cash flow reached negative $1.06 billion in the first half of 2026, compared with negative $787 million a year earlier. The deterioration shows that Polestar is consuming real amounts of capital even after raising $700 million.

Basic demand also shows little momentum since first-half retail sales grew only 0.4% year over year, while second-quarter revenue fell 8% as pricing pressure and lower carbon-credit sales weighed on results. So Polestar faces a difficult combination of weak growth, rising cash needs, and the loss of its U.S. market.

Hedge Fund Data

Insider Monkey's database shows Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC (NASDAQ:PSNY) was held by just 2 hedge funds in both the first and second quarters of 2026, with holdings value essentially unchanged at roughly $2 million. This minimal and unchanged institutional interest reflects how small and thinly followed the stock remains, even as its business faces major structural upheaval.

Conclusion

Polestar faces a much tougher road after losing access to the U.S. market. The firm has narrowed its net loss, raised fresh capital, and expanded its lineup, but weak sales growth and worsening cash burn continue to raise questions about the turnaround. A return to the U.S. could improve the outlook. New models could help Polestar build demand in other markets. But investors still need to see whether the company can turn those opportunities into sustainable growth. For now, Polestar remains a high-risk turnaround story where execution, cash management, and progress toward U.S. re-entry will likely decide the stock's next major move.

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