Goldman Reversed Its Fed Call Twice in Four Days. What an October Hike Does to Bitcoin and XRP.

Goldman Reversed Its Fed Call Twice in Four Days. What an October Hike Does to Bitcoin and XRP.

Sam Daodu

Thu, September 17, 2026 at 8:12 PM GMT+3 6 min read

• BTC-USD +1.38%
• XRP-USD +3.40%

Quick Read

• Goldman flipped to a two-hike baseline after Warsh refused forward guidance and the dot plot showed rising inflation projections, naming October as the next move.

• Bitcoin gained 18% and XRP surged 30% over the past month, but October's hike carries no pricing cushion unlike the fully anticipated September move.

• A Fed signal that October ends the tightening cycle could mark a crypto low; another December dot shift risks pushing Bitcoin and XRP to lower support levels.

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Goldman Sachs told clients on the morning of September 15, 2026, that it expected the Federal Reserve to raise rates the next day but did not expect another hike to be its baseline. Less than 24 hours later, after the Fed delivered that increase on September 16, Goldman had changed its forecast again and now expected another 25-basis-point hike in October.

The second change followed the Fed's updated rate projections, higher inflation forecasts, and Chair Kevin Warsh's comments about financial conditions. That October increase would create a different setup for Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) and XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) because markets had already priced September's hike, while another increase was less fully anticipated.

Goldman Changed Its Fed Call Twice in Two Days

Goldman Sachs first moved from a no-hike call to expecting a rate increase ahead of the September 16 decision, even as chief economist David Mericle argued there was no "strong economic case" for raising rates and that further hikes were "possible but are not our baseline." The bank's September call came as markets were already pricing a high probability of a 25-basis-point increase, after stronger inflation data and rising oil prices pushed more Wall Street economists toward a hike.

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The Federal Open Market Committee then voted 12-0 to raise its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the first hike since 2023. Within hours, Goldman changed its outlook again, now calling for another 25-basis-point increase in October. The shift followed the Fed's updated projections, which showed 16 of 18 officials expecting at least one more hike this year, while four projected two additional increases.

Warsh's press conference reinforced the more hawkish interpretation. He said the Fed had "removed a dose of accommodation" and argued that financial conditions were difficult to describe as restrictive, while the Fed's updated projections showed inflation remaining above its 2% target for longer. Goldman therefore moved from expecting September to be the year's only hike to forecasting another increase in October, citing the Fed's push for a "timelier" return to its inflation goal.

What the Dot Plot Said That Flipped Goldman

The dot plot, the anonymous chart showing where each Fed policymaker expects interest rates to land by year-end, showed that the September hike was not necessarily the end of the Fed's tightening cycle. Sixteen of 18 officials projected at least one more hike in 2026, while four saw two more, even as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to give his own rate forecast. That left the committee's projections to do much of the talking about what could come next.

The inflation outlook pointed in the same direction, with the Fed raising its 2026 headline Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation forecast to 3.7% and lifting its core inflation forecast as well. Warsh reinforced that concern, saying inflation was still too high and that the summer's readings had not given him enough evidence that underlying pressures were improving, giving Goldman more reason to expect the Fed's September hike would not be its last move of the year.

Goldman subsequently moved from expecting September to be the year's only hike to calling for another 25-basis-point increase in October, a shift driven by the Fed's rate projections, higher inflation forecasts, and Warsh's comments rather than the September hike itself.

What the Hike Did to Bitcoin and XRP

Bitcoin and XRP initially handled the Fed's decision better than stocks because futures markets had already priced in the September hike, with both cryptocurrencies moving higher in the hours after the announcement before giving back some of those gains.

Equities reacted more sharply, with the S&P 500 falling about 1% and the Dow dropping roughly 1.7%, or more than 700 points, as both indexes closed near their lowest levels since July after trading higher earlier in the session. U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs also remained under pressure, extending the weakness that followed the Senate's 49-50 vote against advancing the CLARITY Act the day before the Fed meeting.

Bitcoin is trading near $76,300, up roughly 18% over the past month but still about 34% below its level a year ago, while XRP is near $1.29 after gaining roughly 28% over the past month and remaining about 56% lower year over year. XRP is also below its 200-day moving average, with additional support levels underneath the current price, leaving both tokens exposed to the next macro test as markets turn to the Bank of Japan's September 18 decision.

What Two Hikes in Two Months Would Do to Crypto

An October hike would reach markets with less time to adjust than after September's decision. The 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5% this week for the first time since 2007, raising returns on government debt, while another rate increase would push borrowing costs higher. The VIX has also moved higher over the past month, although it remains relatively calm by historical standards, while unemployment near 4.1% and elevated core inflation give the Fed room to maintain its current stance.

Higher Treasury yields could reduce demand for Bitcoin and XRP by giving investors a higher return from government debt. Bitcoin could come under pressure around its existing support levels if yields rise further, while XRP could face additional selling pressure while it remains below its 200-day moving average. The effect would depend heavily on how the Fed frames the October decision and the rate projections that follow.

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