Jim Cramer Notes Oil Is Behind Pressure on Casey’s (CASY) and Texas Roadhouse (TXRH)

Jim Cramer Notes Oil Is Behind Pressure on Casey’s (CASY) and Texas Roadhouse (TXRH)

Syeda Seirut Javed

Sat, September 19, 2026 at 10:35 PM GMT+3 4 min read

• TXRH +0.46%
• CASY -1.64%

Starting the lightning round on September 17, when a caller mentioned that they bought back Casey's General Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ:CASY) after listening to the conference call, Mad Money host Jim Cramer remarked:

I think that was a very wise move. You know, look, this was just totally oil. We're seeing with Texas Roadhouse, too. I think you're wise to go back into it, especially down here all the way. It's almost been cut in half. That's a very good move. I praise you.

Casey's Has Direct Exposure to Fuel Economics

Oil has a direct effect on Casey's General Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ:CASY) fuel business. In fiscal first-quarter 2027, fuel same-store gallons declined 0.3%, while fuel margin increased to 47.8 cents per gallon and fuel gross profit rose 19.6% to $446.9 million. Management addressed that volatility as CEO Darren Rebelez said, "On the fuel side, our team's robust capabilities helped us navigate a volatile environment and produced strong results."

The latest 47.8-cent margin was also above Casey's 42.6-cent average for fiscal 2026. With fiscal 2027 same-store fuel gallons expected to range from negative 1% to positive 1%, fuel-margin normalization would leave less room for fuel to support earnings growth. If margins move closer to the prior-year average without a meaningful increase in fuel volumes, the fuel business would provide less support to earnings growth.

It is worth noting that the company's latest quarter provides several operating positives. Its diluted EPS increased 27.7% to $7.37, EBITDA rose 17.1% to $485.1 million, and inside same-store sales increased 3.2%.

Texas Roadhouse Faces a Different Cost Pressure

Texas Roadhouse, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TXRH) results show margin pressure, although its reported cost inflation is not directly attributable to oil. Second-quarter comparable restaurant sales increased 6.2%, but restaurant margin declined 66 basis points to 16.4% as commodity inflation reached 7% and wage and other labor inflation reached 3.9%. CEO Jerry Morgan said "continued strong traffic trends drove record average weekly sales." Management expects approximately 5% commodity inflation and 3% to 4% wage and other labor inflation for 2026.

Oil seems to be a different issue for Texas Roadhouse than for Casey's. The restaurant operator is not directly exposed to fuel margins; its financial sensitivity is instead tied to the broader cost environment and consumer spending.

The company entered the second half of 2026 with meaningful sales momentum. Store weeks rose 5%, and average weekly sales reached $177,252, compared with $167,350 a year earlier. Restaurant margin dollars increased 6.9% to $275.1 million despite higher operating costs. The company generated $180.1 million of operating cash flow during the quarter and continued opening restaurants. Management's 2026 outlook calls for positive comparable sales and 5% to 6% store-week growth.

Hedge Fund Positioning and Short Interest

According to Insider Monkey, which tracks more than 1,000 hedge funds, 48 hedge funds had stakes in Casey's in the second quarter, up from 43 in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, Texas Roadhouse had 49 hedge fund holders in the second quarter, up from 42 in the first quarter. Additionally, for Casey's General Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ:CASY), short interest was approximately 3.8% to 4.2% of the float and Texas Roadhouse, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TXRH) was roughly 3% to 3.2% of the float.

Cramer's comparison connects two companies through oil without treating them as the same business. Casey's is directly exposed to fuel margins and gasoline demand, while Texas Roadhouse is more exposed to the broader cost and consumer environment. The financial pressure from higher oil therefore reaches their earnings through different channels, with margin durability the more immediate issue for both.

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