Samsara (IOT): 12 Analysts Raised Price Targets, But Some Still Want a Better Entry Point
Faheem TahirTue, September 22, 2026 at 2:29 PM GMT+3 4 min read
On September 3, 2026, Samsara Inc. (NYSE:IOT) reported second-quarter fiscal 2027 results. Revenue reached $508.4 million, up 30% year-over-year, annual recurring revenue crossed $2.1 billion at the same growth rate, and GAAP net income came in at $0.03 per share, the company's fourth consecutive profitable quarter.
Bulls: Record Large-Customer Adds and a Still-Untapped Dash Cam Market Keep the Growth Story Intact
RBC Capital raised its target on Samsara Inc. (NYSE:IOT) to $55 from $50, keeping Outperform and calling the stock its "top idea," pointing to 30% annual recurring revenue growth for a third consecutive quarter at a larger scale with traction across large customers, emerging products, federal, international, and AI.
BofA's Matt Bullock raised his target to $55 from $47, keeping Buy, saying "all important key metrics" exceeded expectations substantially and calling Samsara "one of the highest quality growth assets in software."
Evercore ISI raised its target to $55 from $40, keeping Outperform, and KeyBanc raised its target on Samsara Inc. (NYSE:IOT) to $55 from $46, keeping Overweight, both citing broad-based strength across large customers, emerging products, and international penetration.
Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a $45 target, citing Samsara's durable business model moats and large underpenetrated total addressable market.
The underlying customer metrics reinforce the momentum.
Samsara Inc. (NYSE:IOT) added a record 242 customers generating at least $100,000 in annual recurring revenue during the quarter, bringing the total to 3,605 and their combined ARR to $1.3 billion, a 38% increase from a year earlier. The company also secured 20 new customers with ARR of $1 million or more, also a quarterly record. Management estimates that about 85% of commercial vehicles have yet to adopt an AI-powered dash camera, while 96% of customers in the $100,000-plus ARR group now use at least two Samsara products.
Bears: Truist, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley Say the Growth is Real, but the Price Already Assumes it
Truist raised its target to $48 from $38 but kept a Hold rating despite calling Q2 "strong," while JPMorgan raised its target to $52 from $48 and held Neutral, calling the quarter a "durable beat and raise" without upgrading.
Piper Sandler raised its target on Samsara Inc. (NYSE:IOT) to $46 from $40, keeping Neutral, and Morgan Stanley raised its target to $49 from $43, keeping Equal Weight, saying the firm is still "looking for entry points" rather than recommending the stock outright.
The caution has real support in the numbers.
CFO Dominic Phillips said free cash flow margin is now expected to land about 100 basis points below fiscal 2026 levels, citing more IoT devices needed to support the growth outlook, an inventory buildup that pushed inventory from $48.2 million to $57 million, and elevated supply chain costs in the back half of the year.
Guidance points to deceleration from here: third-quarter revenue is guided to $514 million to $516 million, 24% growth, down from the 30% pace just reported, and full-year revenue guidance of $2.043 billion to $2.047 billion implies 26% growth for the year. Non-GAAP operating margin is projected to remain at 21% in both periods, suggesting that further margin expansion is not currently built into the outlook despite continued pressure from hardware costs.
What The Smart Money Sees
BAMCO Inc. raised its stake 54% to 7.88 million shares worth $255.6 million as of the second quarter of 2026, and Balyasny Asset Management increased its position nearly sixfold, up 492%, to 3.08 million shares worth $100.0 million. Freestone Grove Partners added 34% to reach 2.87 million shares worth $93.1 million, and Atreides Management took a new position of 2.31 million shares worth $74.9 million.
Overall hedge fund ownership fell to 40 funds from 45, a step back in institutional conviction even as the business posted record customer additions. Short interest sits at 8.93% of float, and shares trade at 52.36 times forward earnings as of September 18, 2026.
Takeaway
A broad group of analysts who covered Samsara Inc. (NYSE:IOT)'s quarter came away with a higher price target, but the ratings tell a more divided story than the targets do: RBC, BofA, Evercore ISI, and KeyBanc are willing to call it a top idea, while Truist, JPMorgan, Piper Sandler, and Morgan Stanley like the business but are waiting for a better entry point on valuation.
With guidance already pointing to growth decelerating toward the mid-20s and free cash flow margin set to compress further, the next few quarters will show whether Samsara's 96% multi-product attach rate is enough to keep justifying a price multiple north of 50.
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