MiniMed (MMED): Nine Analysts Raised Targets, But Cash Flow Still Has a Catch

MiniMed (MMED): Nine Analysts Raised Targets, But Cash Flow Still Has a Catch

Faheem Tahir

Tue, September 22, 2026 at 2:55 PM GMT+3 4 min read

• MMED -3.07%

On September 1, 2026, MiniMed Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:MMED) reported first-quarter fiscal 2027 results for the period ended July 31, 2026. Worldwide net sales rose 16.6% as reported and 15.8% organically to $843 million, U.S. net sales grew 13.1%, and management raised full-year organic revenue growth guidance to approximately 10.5% from 10%.

Bulls: Every New Product is Landing Exactly As Designed, and the Pipeline Keeps Arriving Early

BofA raised its target to $28 from $24, keeping Buy, calling the quarter a "solid" beat with pipeline updates as "the real highlight" and describing MiniMed Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:MMED) as "one of the most catalyst rich stories in diabetes and medtech."

Mizuho raised its target to $26 from $21, keeping Outperform, saying momentum from Flex pumps and newer sensors points to upside versus the company's "conservative" guidance.

BTIG raised its target to $28 from $25, keeping Buy, citing several pipeline milestones landing ahead of schedule: MiniMed Fit submitted to the FDA with a full U.S. launch expected summer 2027, MiniMed Flex receiving a CE Mark, completed enrollment in the Vivera closed-loop trial, and IDE approval for the next-generation extended wear sensor.

Wells Fargo's Larry Biegelsen raised his target to $26 from $22, keeping Overweight, noting OUS revenue beat consensus and U.S. growth accelerated. Morgan Stanley, UBS, Citi, Deutsche Bank, and Evercore ISI all raised targets as well.

The operating detail supports the optimism: new pumps sold in the U.S. climbed more than 20% year-over-year, new prescribers writing for Flex rose 24%, competitive conversions from rival pump makers have doubled from a year ago, and MiniMed's global CGM attachment rate reached 69%, up from 64% a year ago.

Growth Is Strong, but Separation Costs Are Still Weighing on Cash Flow

The analyst view has not turned cautious. The numbers have.

Adjusted EBITDA margin landed at just 9.9%, and free cash flow was negative $90 million for the quarter. Of that cash burn, $111 million came from separation and standup costs tied to building MiniMed Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:MMED) into an independent company, without which free cash flow would have been positive $21 million. Margins took additional hits from $8 million in pulled-forward spending to speed up the Fit filing and Flex launch, and a $12 million currency remeasurement charge, together reducing about 230 basis points off EBITDA margin.

Only 17 of the 160 transition service agreements with Medtronic have been exited, with most of the rest not expected to wrap up until sometime in calendar 2027. An extra week in MiniMed's fiscal calendar added 4 to 6 percentage points to this quarter's reported growth rate, a boost management itself said will "normalize" out of the numbers next quarter.

What The Smart Money Sees

Hedge fund ownership of MiniMed Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:MMED) rose to 26 funds from 22 the prior quarter, a sign institutional interest is building. Short interest sits at 28.25% of float, a level that reflects a genuine bear camp positioned against the stock even as every analyst who has weighed in has raised their target. That combination, more hedge funds reporting positions while short sellers stay heavily positioned, points to real disagreement over whether the Flex-driven growth rate holds up once the extra week and pipeline pull-forwards roll off the comparisons.

Takeaway

The analysts cited above who covered MiniMed Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:MMED)'s first quarter as a standalone company came away more bullish, pointing to a pipeline arriving ahead of schedule and a new pump pulling patients away from competitors. The counterpoint is that the quarter still produced negative $90 million of free cash flow, although management says separation and stand-up costs more than fully explain the deficit.

Whether Fit and Vivera launch on the timelines management has outlined will decide which story, the growth or the cash burn, defines the stock once the extra-week boost and separation costs fade from the numbers.

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