What Had Commodities Moving to Start the New Week?

What Had Commodities Moving to Start the New Week?

Mon, September 21, 2026 at 1:33 PM GMT+3 5 min read

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent met with China's Vice Premier over the weekend, the US side saying the meeting was "successful".

• The stage has been set for the scheduled varsity meeting later this week between the US president and China's President Xi.

• The commodities complex showed algorithms were influenced once again by weekend headlines, with selling seen in Energies and buying in Softs and Grains.

Morning Summary: As I watched the various sectors of the commodity complex open Sunday evening and night, a pattern started to develop. Both Metals and Energies were under pressure while US stock index futures and Treasury futures were stronger. A couple hours later, Grains and Softs jumped shortly after the opening bell. Given what we saw at last Friday's close, much of this didn't seem to make sense until I remembered a headline I saw earlier in the day talking about how US Treasury Secretary Bessent had met with China's Vice Premier over the weekend, ahead of the Big Boy meeting scheduled for later this week. Of course, the US side claimed this junior varsity meeting to be "successful", enough to trigger algorithms into buying US financial and ag markets again. Will we see support in the Livestock sector when those markets open in a couple more hours? We need to keep in mind last Friday's September 1 Cattle on Feed numbers that came in well off pre-report guesses, something algorithms seem to be tuned to. If so and given both on feed and August placements were below "expectations", then the logical move would be for Watson to buy on the open.

Corn: The corn market got off to a rollicking start this week as the December issue (ZCZ26) opened in the green and extended its gain to as much as 7.25 cents overnight on still light trade volume of about 33,000 contracts. For the record, Dec was sitting 5.5 cents higher at this writing. There are a number of things to keep in mind with corn as we head into this week, starting with initial yield reports from the 2026 harvest coming in below "expectations". Granted, the market has had this priced in for quite some time. A look at the Dec-March futures spread and closed last Friday covering a still neutral 45% calculated full commercial carry but had trimmed this from the previous week's settlement of 49%. Then we have the change in weather patterns since the calendar page turned to September, meaning meteorological fall had begun[i]. This past weekend brought more rain to the US Plains and Midwest, a pattern that is expected to continue through the rest of the month. Then we have Watson itself. Last Friday's Commitments of Traders report showed a slight decrease in both long and net-long futures positions, though new records could still be set if algorithms finish this Tuesday-to-Tuesday positioning week in a buying mood.

Soybeans: We saw something similar in soybeans Sunday as the November issue (ZSX26) opened in the green and quickly jumped to a gain of 12.5 cents. However, since that opening salvo, the market has seen its rally erode with Nov26 sitting 7.0 cents higher on overnight trade volume of fewer than 25,000 contracts as of this writing. Some of the pressure was likely due to the break in Energies, with diesel fuel down 12.75 cents to start the day[ii]. However, this didn't have the expected effect on the oilseed sub-sector as a whole with only soybean oil in the red pre-dawn. But, it is early, and as we all know by now, "The only price that matters is the close"[iii], and if we apply the Goldilocks Principle, the only price that matters is the weekly close. Back to soybeans. At last Friday's close the Nov-January futures spread covered 56% calculated full commercial carry as compared to the previous Friday's settlement of 53%. The 2026-27 Nov-July futures spread covered 32% versus 28%. The bottom line is we can see commercial interests were putting pressure on the market last week. Will this change following this week's meeting between the US president and China's President Xi?[iv] We'll find out.

Wheat: The wheat sub-sector was also in the green to start the new week, also on moderate-to-light overnight trade volume. The December SRW issue (ZWZ26) was up 8.5 cents at this writing after rallying as much as 14.25 cents while registering fewer than 12,000 contracts changing hands. A look back at Friday's close and we see the Dec-March futures spread covered a bearish leaning 64% calculated full commercial carry, generally unchanged from the previous Friday's settlement. National average basis was calculated at 71.25 cents under December futures versus the previous Friday's final figure of 71.75 cents under and the previous 5-year average weekly close for last week of 72.0 cents under December. In other words, from a fundamental point of view, the SRW market is going nowhere fast. As for Watson, the latest Commitments of Traders report showed the net-long futures position trimmed to only 1,230 contracts as of Tuesday, September 15, a decrease of 9,240 contracts from the previous week. Over in HRW, with another rain system moving across parts of the US Southern Plains, the new-crop July issue (KEN27) was up 7.0 cents to start the day on trade volume of 600 contracts. July HRW has closed lower 3 consecutive weeks, putting it in a short-term oversold position.

[i] Another piece of wisdom from the late Gary Wilhemi, something I like to call Market Meteorological Musing, "Weather patterns tend to change with the seasons".

[ii] It should be noted AAA is reporting the national average cash diesel fuel price at $6.51 Monday morning, up about 0.5 cent from Sunday.

[iii] The Wilhelmi Element.

[iv] For the record, I still have my doubts this meeting will actually happen. But if it does, proclaimed victory by the US side will – how can I say this delicately – be another lie.

On the date of publication, Darin Newsom did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com