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Snowflake Stock Is Up 45% in a Year. Is It Too Late to Buy?

Wiltone Asuncion

Tue, September 22, 2026 at 2:34 AM GMT+3 6 min read

• SNOW -0.83%

Key Stats for Snowflake Stock

• Current Price: $332.43

• Target Price (Mid): ~$879

• Street Target: ~$425

• Potential Total Return: ~165%

• Annualized IRR: ~25% / year

What Happened?

Snowflake (SNOW) bottomed on April 10 after a 56% drawdown, then spent the next five months erasing almost all of it. The stock has returned about 45% over the past year and trades near $332, close enough to its $384.56 post-earnings high that the question has flipped. Investors spent the spring asking whether to buy the wreckage. Now they are asking whether they missed it.

A blowout quarter on September 2 sent shares up 21% in a day, eight firms raised their targets within 48 hours, and one of the market's most famous bears called the valuation "very overvalued" the same week. Buying here means paying up for a company that has already run, on the bet that the acceleration has further to go.

The Quarter That Forced Eight Banks to Rewrite Their Models

Snowflake reported fiscal second-quarter results (period ended July 31, 2026) after the close on September 2. Revenue rose 35% to $1.55 billion against a $1.48 billion consensus, and adjusted earnings came in at $0.62 per share versus the $0.45 the Street expected. Product revenue grew 37%, up from 34% the prior quarter and 30% the quarter before that. Three straight quarters of accelerating growth are rare at this size, and the market treated it that way.

Management raised full-year product revenue guidance to $6.07 billion, or 36% growth, from a prior 31%. The reaction off the tape was just as loud. RBC Capital moved its target to $440, Morgan Stanley's Sanjit Singh went to $470 from $300, and Stifel, TD Cowen, Argus, and Canaccord all landed at $450. RBC Capital said the AI flywheel is accelerating at scale, and read the guidance raise as a signal of further acceleration ahead rather than a one-quarter pop.

CFO Brian Robins, speaking at the Piper Sandler Growth Frontiers Conference on September 15, tied the beat to something more durable than a single product. He said that when a customer adopts CoCo or AI, Snowflake sees an 11% uplift to the core business they would have run otherwise. That reframes AI as a multiplier on the existing consumption engine, not a separate line item. Management said AI products drove roughly half the acceleration, with the core data platform driving the rest.

What $332 Already Assumes

Snowflake trades at about 132 times next-twelve-monthearnings, 16 times forward EV/revenue, and 86 times forward EV/EBITDA. These are not numbers you grow into quietly. They require high-30s product growth to hold for years, not quarters. Reporting around the print put Snowflake near 167 times forward earnings against Datadog at 77 and MongoDB at 63, so even against fast growers, the premium is wide.

Michael Burrycalled Snowflake "very overvalued" the day after earnings, pointing past the multiple to longer-term risks: that enterprises could pull sensitive data back in-house, and that AI and quantum advances could weaken the security case for centralizing data in a cloud lake. Those are unproven concerns about the future, not the present, but they cut at the thesis rather than the price. The insider signal adds discomfort, with more than $350 million in stock sold over the trailing 90 days.

Net revenue retention held at 126%, remaining performance obligations reached $9.0 billion on 30% growth, and the company added 692 net new customers. Robins made the durability point plainly: the core of the business comes from customers who signed on six, seven, and eight years ago and keep moving more workloads onto the platform. That is the engine that the multiple is really pricing, and it is still running.

The Efficiency Story Underneath the Growth

The less-discussed shift is on cost. Snowflake is committed to GAAP profitability in the fourth quarter of the next fiscal year, and Robins insisted the target required no constraints on spending. The company added roughly 330 people year to date, of which 170 to 180 came from the Observe acquisition, against about 940 in the same period a year earlier.

Free cash flow margins already sit near 24%, and the model assumes they climb toward the high 20s as the company scales. If AI adoption keeps lifting the core the way Robins describes, the margin path and the growth path reinforce each other. If growth slows, the valuation becomes the whole conversation, exactly as Burry argues.

TIKR Advanced Model Analysis

• Current Price: $332.43

• Target Price (Mid): ~$879

• Potential Total Return: ~165%

• Annualized IRR: ~25% / year

TIKR's mid-case scenario models Snowflake at around $879 by early 2031, an implied total return of roughly 165%, and about a 25% annualized IRR over the next four-plus years. The figure is a scenario built on stated assumptions, not a forecast of where the stock will trade.

Two revenue drivers carry it: continued high-30s product growth as AI adoption feeds the consumption model, and deeper penetration of the installed base as older customers migrate more workloads. The margin driver is operating leverage, with net income margins modeled toward the mid-teens as the GAAP-profitability commitment plays out and headcount growth stays well below revenue growth.

The primary risk is the multiple itself. The model assumes almost no change in theP/E over the forecast, so nearly all of the return comes from earnings growth rather than a re-rating. The upside case runs well above the mid-target if growth and margins both reach the high end. The downside is straightforward: at 132 times earnings, any slip toward low-30s growth puts the premium itself in play, which is exactly the tension Burry is pressing.

Conclusion

The next real test is December 2, when Snowflake reports its October quarter. Consensus models a GAAP loss of about $0.37 per share, so the number that matters is product revenue growth. Anything holding in the mid-to-high 30s says the acceleration Robins described is intact, and the chase was justified. A slip toward the low 30s hands Burry his argument, because at 132 times earnings, the stock has no room to disappoint. Watch the growth rate first and the profitability timeline second. Those two lines decide whether buying near the highs was early or late.

Should You Invest in Snowflake?

The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.

Pull up Snowflake, and you'll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.

You can build a free watchlist to track Snowflake alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.