Rothschild Redburn starts Nebius at Sell with $84 target, implying 62% downside

Rothschild Redburn starts Nebius at Sell with $84 target, implying 62% downside

Tue, September 22, 2026 at 4:13 PM GMT+3 2 min read

• NBIS -4.03%

Rothschild & Co Redburn initiated coverage of Nebius (NASDAQ: NBIS) at Sell on Monday, with analyst Alex Haissl setting an $84 price target.

The target is 62.42% below Nebius' reported $223.54 opening price on Monday. Rothschild Redburn sees the stock as carrying the greatest downside risk among the AI infrastructure companies it assessed.

The rating differs from the broader Wall Street view. Nebius holds a Moderate Buy consensus and a $232.20 average target, based on two Strong Buy ratings, nine Buy ratings, six Hold ratings and two Sell ratings.

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"While the equity narrative across the generative AI infrastructure 'remains firmly bullish,' credit markets are 'beginning to price risks that equities largely ignore,'" Rothschild Redburn said in comments reported by The Fly.

The firm said hyperscaler leverage appears higher once commitments not recorded on the balance sheet are counted, which could constrain funding for the next phase of AI infrastructure. Rothschild Redburn is neutral on the sector, bearish on neocloud operators and more constructive on traditional data-center REITs.

Nebius shares have traded between $73.52 and $299.86 over the past year. The stock's reported 50-day moving average was $212.09, while its 200-day moving average was $191.04.

Nebius' capex build

The rating comes as Nebius pursues a capital-intensive expansion. Management expects to deploy, through 2030, 5 GW of AI infrastructure capacity that is under contract, a program estimated to require about $250 billion, with roughly $200 billion still to be financed.

Nebius has raised capital through equity, unsecured convertibles and asset-backed borrowing. It priced $5 billion of convertible notes in August after securing a $775 million senior secured loan in July. At the end of the second quarter, cash and equivalents stood at $8 billion.

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Nebius' second-quarter revenue rose 454% compared with the prior year, reaching $582.3 million. Nebius AI supplied $575 million, or 98% of group revenue, while adjusted EBITDA reached $236 million and adjusted EBITDA margin increased to 41%.