AI Fears Are Reaching Fever Pitch But I’m Not Slowing Down My Nvidia Accumulation

Alex Sirois

Tue, September 22, 2026 at 6:43 PM GMT+3 5 min read

Quick Read

NVDA revenue hit $96B, up 106% year over year, with Data Center alone printing $89B and Q3 guided to $108B.
AMD and Broadcom ship credible chips, but neither matches NVIDIA's CUDA moat or full-stack platform that converts hyperscaler capex into repeat orders.
Hyperscaler capex is guided to $800B in 2026 and $1.3T in 2027, yet NVIDIA can only supply about 70% of stated demand through fiscal 2028.
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I bought more NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) shares last week, and I will probably buy more this week. AI doom chatter fills every feed I open. My cost basis keeps climbing anyway, because the numbers coming out of this company describe a business that has become the electrical grid of a new computing era, and I want to own as much of that grid as I can before retirement.

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Compute Is Revenue, and the Revenue Is Compounding

Q2 fiscal 2027 landed with revenue of $96.22B, up 105.85% year over year, clearing consensus by 4.51%. Non-GAAP EPS came in at 2.22 against a 2.0887 estimate, the fifth consecutive beat. Data Center alone printed $89.02B, up 117%, with Networking inside it up 138%. Management guides Q3 to $108.0B plus or minus 2%, and that guide excludes any China Data Center compute.

The margin structure is the second reason my finger keeps hovering over the buy. Net margin sits at 55.60%, ROE at 101.5%, ROIC at 92.2%. Debt-to-equity is 0.073 with interest coverage of 503x. This is a fortress that prints cash: $21.34B of free cash flow in one quarter and $96.58B across fiscal 2026. Management returned approximately $26.0 billion to shareholders in Q2 through buybacks and the $0.25 dividend, with $99B still authorized.

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Why Not AMD or Broadcom

The reflex alternatives are Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) and Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO). I pass on both every time. NVIDIA generated $89.02B in Data Center revenue in a single quarter. On the August 26 call, management said NVIDIA is "the only platform that runs every frontier model" and that competing custom XPUs are "often inference-specific and tied to one cloud or service". AMD ships credible GPUs. AVGO ships credible custom silicon. The full-stack AI factory platform that turns hyperscaler capex into a repeat purchase order lives at NVIDIA, and CUDA is the software moat around it.

Risk I Actually Lose Sleep Over

Supply commitments ballooned to $279B, mostly memory tied to Vera Rubin. Guarantee obligations sit at $108.5B for AI cloud partners. DSO stretched from 45 to 60 days on extended payment terms for large investment-grade customers. If AI capex slows, NVIDIA is on the hook for a mountain of memory and an aging receivables book. Management calls the compute "fungible and durable", redeployable to other customers. That is the bet I am accepting.

What keeps me pressing buy: capex from the top five hyperscalers is guided to "nearly 800 billion in 2026" and "1.3 trillion in 2027", cloud backlog is "greater than 2 trillion", and NVIDIA has supply for only about 70% of stated demand, a constraint expected to persist through fiscal 2028. All of that spend has to be powered, cooled, and networked by somebody, and we pulled seven of those non-chip beneficiaries into a free report. AI venture funding reached $400 billion in the first half of 2026, with roughly 70% flowing to compute. Analysts have raised the FY2028 EPS average from 12.6737 ninety days ago to 15.6826, with 42 upward revisions and 0 downward revisions in the trailing 30 days.

Forward Conviction

NVIDIA trades at a P/E of 46 on trailing earnings, which sounds rich until you register that net income grew 125.9% year over year, management sees revenue growing "approximately 70% in fiscal 2028", and the balance sheet is effectively net cash. This is the rare position where fundamentals compound faster than the multiple can expand, and I want more of it every month my paycheck clears.

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