Texas governor race tightens in prediction markets, but Abbott remains favored

Political observers are watching the Texas gubernatorial election for signs of an artificial intelligence data center backlash in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections on Tuesday, and prediction market traders see growing odds of the Democratic candidate pulling off an upset.

Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican seeking a fourth term, has a 60% chance of beating Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa on Tuesday, according to speculators on platform Kalshi.

Hinojosa's odds to win have jumped from 8% in mid-July to 40% on Monday, with many of those gains coming in recent weeks as a series of polls have shown the race to be tightening. On Polymarket, Hinojosa has seen her odds jump from as low as 5% in late July to 39% on Monday.

Contracts are resolved using data from the Texas Secretary of State's office.

Odds and gambling platforms do not use methodologies used by traditional political polling, and therefore are not substitutes for political polls.

Hinojosa is seeking to be the first Democratic governor in Texas in more than 30 years. She has used Abbott's previous support for data center development in the state as an attack against the incumbent.

In November 2025, Abbott touted a $40 billion investment by Google — which included bringing three new data centers to the state — by saying that Texas will be the "epicenter of AI development." But Abbott has changed his tune as voters' opinion of data centers has soured over the past year.

Abbott in August ordered an audit of data centers that sought to connect to the state's grid, and then in September halted the approval of all data center-related permits until an audit of the existing waitlist is conducted.

Hinojosa is running on an immediate data center moratorium until the legislature puts guardrails on the industry, according to her campaign website.

In-person early voting in Texas concluded on Friday, and more than 7.7 million Texans have already cast their ballots.

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