Trump Jr.'s Investment Firm Posts 200% Returns, Helped by Polymarket's Meteoric Rise

Daragh Thomas

Sun, July 26, 2026 at 4:30 PM GMT+3 6 min read

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Donald Trump Jr.'s investment firm 1789 Capital has reportedly generated returns of roughly 200%, driven partly by an early bet on prediction market platform Polymarket.

The firm's main fund posted the gains as of June 30, according to a New York Times report published Wednesday. That compares with an average return of about 21% for venture firms started in 2023, per PitchBook data cited in the report.

A 50x Polymarket Bet

Polymarket was valued at around $300 million when 1789 Capital invested. The company is now reportedly worth $15 billion.

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Trump Jr. told the Times he first approached founder Shayne Coplan at the 2024 Republican National Convention, saying Polymarket's odds, not the polls, matched what he was hearing from voters about his father's chances.

Polymarket's rapid increase in valuation followed a regulatory thaw under the Trump administration. The CFTC granted Polymarket a U.S. operating license last year, withdrew a Biden-era proposal to ban political and sports prediction markets, and has sided with the platforms in their legal fight against state gambling regulators.

Trump Jr. also serves as a strategic adviser to Polymarket's main rival Kalshi, which reportedly granted him shares for the role, meaning federal decisions on prediction markets may benefit him whichever platform wins.

Kalshi raised $1 billion in May at a $22 billion valuation and is reportedly in talks for a new round that could value it near $40 billion.

Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.

Government Ties Run Through the 1789 Portfolio

The firm, co-founded by Omeed Malik, bought stakes in SpaceX, Anduril, Cerebras and Reflection AI before any went public, according to the report.

Two years ago 1789 managed a few hundred million dollars; it now oversees more than $3 billion. Angela Lee, a Columbia Business School professor, offered one explanation to the Times for the firm's rapid growth: "People are paying for proximity to power."

Another holding, rare-earths magnet maker Vulcan Elements, reportedly landed a $620 million Defense Department loan commitment months after 1789 invested at a $200 million valuation. The company is now said to be worth around $2 billion, and Democrats on the House Natural Resources Committee are examining whether the firm influenced the loan, per the report.

Malik and Trump Jr. denied having any inside track on the loan. Malik told the Times he learned of it from a company press release, while Trump Jr. said he has never met or spoken to anyone at Vulcan Elements.

ProPublica reported that the loan request came from White House adviser Peter Navarro, a friend of Trump Jr.'s. Navarro dismissed the reporting as hyperbole, and a spokesperson for Trump Jr. said he never spoke to Navarro about Vulcan.

Other 1789 Holdings

Traders on Polymarket assign Anduril, a 1789 holding valued at $61 billion, roughly an 8% chance of an IPO before 2027.

Cerebras Systems priced its IPO at $185 in May, with shares opening to the public at $350. It now trades around $221.

SpaceX listed on June 12 in the largest IPO in history. The stock's rocky debut performance may help explain why traders doubt the rest of the portfolio rushes to market this year.

Image: Shutterstock

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