SpaceX hisselerini halka arz fiyatından satın aldınız ve şimdi para kaybediyorsunuz. Dip sosunu satın almak güvenli midir?

You bought SpaceX shares at the IPO price — and now you’re losing money. Is it safe to buy the dip?

Aditi Ganguly

Wed, July 29, 2026 at 1:05 PM GMT+3 13 min read

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SpaceX has erased almost $1 trillion in stock market value in five weeks — more than most individual companies in the world are worth (1).

Retail investors who fought for shares at the $135 IPO price are down over 18% as of July 27 (2). Those who bought four days later, at the June 16 peak of $225.64, are down over 50%. A 50% discount on the hottest company in the world may look like an obvious buy, but that instinct is exactly what needs examining.

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"Hype and quality are not the same thing," Matthew Fleissig, CEO of the wealth management firm Pathstone, warned in a recent MarketWatch column (3). The next two weeks will test which one SpaceX has been trading on.

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) is set to report its first earnings as a public company on Aug. 4 and two trading days after that, hundreds of millions of insider shares will become eligible to sell for the first time (4). Short sellers already control close to a third of the stock's tradable float.

What's happening to SpaceX stock

SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 a share on June 11, raising $85.7 billion in what became the largest public offering in history (5). Shares jumped to $160.95 on their first day of trading on June 12, then kept climbing (6). By June 16, the stock touched an intraday high of $225.64, pushing the company's valuation briefly past $2 trillion.

It's been mostly downhill since. And the company's own missteps haven't helped. SpaceX postponed a Falcon 9 launch that was supposed to put 24 Starlink satellites in orbit and pushed back its 13th Starship test after several engines failed to start — two of them had to be pulled and replaced (7). Growth is slowing too. SpaceX grew revenue 33% in 2025; in the first quarter of this year, that rate fell to 15%. And the company is still deep in the red — with a $4.9 billion net loss last year on $18.7 billion in revenue (8).

Along the way, Meta passed SpaceX in market value — $1.64 trillion to $1.59 trillion (9).

Why the next two weeks matter

Short interest in SpaceX keeps climbing (10).

It stood at 5% to 7% of the tradable float back in June. It was 185 million shares, 29% of the float, as of July 16. It's near 206 million shares, or 32%, as of July 24 — roughly $25 billion riding on the stock falling further, according to S3 Partners.

The firm's head of research, Matthew Unterman, told CNBC, "We continue to see short sellers adding exposure ahead of several key upcoming catalysts." Shorts are deliberately positioning for Aug. 4 and the share unlocks behind it (11). That 32% is a level almost unheard of for a company this size; Apple's short interest hovers near 1% (12).

Musk isn't taking any of this quietly. Firms that keep betting against SpaceX, he wrote on X, have a "very low" chance of surviving — and he repeated his claim that, if goals are met, the company "will be worth more than Earth" (13).

His own fortune is riding on it. Forbes' Real-Time Billionaires Index put his net worth above $1 trillion on IPO day; by July 24, it was down to roughly $725 billion (14). The short sellers, for now, are winning the argument, as they were sitting on an estimated $8.7 billion in paper profits as of mid-July (15).

SpaceX deliberately spread its insider sales across several dates instead of one, so the market wouldn't get flooded all at once. The first release is still massive. Two trading days after the Aug. 4 report, 911.5 million insider shares will become free to sell — no strings attached.

A second batch of 455.8 million shares does have strings: The stock must close above $175.50 on five of the 10 trading days before the report (16). That's nearly 52% above its price as of July 24.

And the stock is still expensive.

Even after the slide, SpaceX was trading at 49 times expected revenue as of mid-July, down from close to 140 times in the frenzy of its first trading days (17). Morningstar put SpaceX's fair value at $780 billion before the IPO even priced. The market, even now, is paying about double his number (18).

Buying the dip

Before the IPO, getting SpaceX exposure was a sport. People worked every angle — venture funds that happened to hold shares, private-market middlemen charging steep markups, anyone with a connection.

Some of those same people are now too nervous to buy at a discount to the price they once begged for. Gavin Baker, an early SpaceX investor and chief investment officer at Atreides Management, isn't one of them. He told CNBC that the pullback looks like a normal part of any IPO and that he isn't losing sleep over it (19).

The underlying business, at least, is not really in dispute.

Starlink runs roughly 9,600 satellites and Falcon rockets land successfully more than 99% of the time, per the company's IPO prospectus. And the AI-infrastructure unit SpaceX bought in February, formerly known as xAI, already rents computing capacity to Google, Anthropic and Reflection, with the Pentagon reportedly in talks to do the same.

There's a case for the stock bouncing from here. Nearly a third of the float is sold short and a squeeze works like this: If the stock starts rising, everyone who borrowed shares to bet against it has to buy them back to cap their losses — and all that forced buying sends the price up even faster.

Musk's own 42% stake stays locked up until June 2027 (20). Most analysts are still bullish: 27 of the 28 tracked by Investing.com rate the stock a buy (21). And there's precedent for patience — Meta traded below its own IPO price for more than a year before becoming a trillion-dollar company.

That said, Wall Street's price targets for SpaceX span from $62 a share to $800 — a $738 gap that tells you how little agreement there is on what this company is worth (22).

Get advice from Wall Street veterans

Despite the volatility, SpaceX still has a compelling long-term story.

The company is one of the federal government's largest contractors, generating roughly one-fifth of its revenue from agencies including NASA, the Department of Defense and the U.S. Intelligence Community. Add in the "Musk effect" and it's easy to see the hype behind SpaceX.

But with shares trading at roughly 49 times expected revenue, valuation concerns are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. Legendary investor Warren Buffett has long warned against chasing expensive stocks.

"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price," Buffett wrote in Berkshire Hathaway's 1989 annual shareholder letter (23).

The challenge, of course, is figuring out which companies are genuinely undervalued and which simply look cheap because their businesses are deteriorating. In a market filled with AI hype, shifting economic data and constant headlines, separating quality opportunities from value traps takes time and experience.

If you don't have hours to sift through earnings reports, analyst calls and economic releases, platforms like Moby can help.

Moby offers expert research and recommendations to help you identify strong, long-term investments backed by advice from former hedge fund analysts.

In four years and across almost 400 stock picks, their recommendations have beaten the S&P 500 by almost 12% on average. They also offer a 30-day money-back guarantee.

Moby's team spends hundreds of hours sifting through financial news and data to provide you with stock and crypto reports delivered straight to you. Their research keeps you up-to-the-minute on market shifts and can help you reduce the guesswork behind choosing stocks and ETFs.

Plus, their reports are easy to understand for beginners, so you can become a smarter investor in just five minutes.

Invest in safe-haven assets

If SpaceX's decline illustrates anything, it's that no matter how promising a company appears, concentrating too much of your portfolio in stocks can leave you vulnerable when markets turn.

Stock markets continue to face a long list of headwinds, from lofty AI valuations and stubborn inflation to elevated interest rates and geopolitical tensions. These can fuel sharp swings in investor sentiment, particularly for fast-growing companies like SpaceX whose prices depend heavily on future expectations.

That's why diversification matters. Holding assets that respond differently to economic conditions can help reduce the impact of stock market corrections.

Going for gold

Gold has historically been one of those defensive assets. Unlike stocks, its value isn't driven by corporate earnings, making it an attractive option during periods when investors are seeking stability. Over the past five years, gold has more than doubled in value while outperforming the S&P 500 index.

Today, you can combine the recession-resistant properties of the precious metal with the tax advantages of an IRA by opening a gold IRA with the help of Priority Gold.

And with Priority Gold's platinum package, you can even get free account setup and insured shipping and storage for up to five years. Plus, you can also roll over your existing IRA or 401(k) into a precious metals IRA with Priority Gold — tax and penalty-free.

The best part? You can download Priority Gold's wealth preservation guide for free and get up to $10,000 in complimentary silver upon making a qualifying purchase. Just keep in mind that gold is typically best used as one part of your portfolio.

Add real estate to the mix

Another way to reduce your exposure to volatile growth stocks is by adding real estate.

Unlike mega-cap tech stocks, property values are generally influenced by housing demand, rental income, population growth and local economic conditions rather than investor enthusiasm surrounding the latest AI breakthrough.

Real estate also offers something many stocks don't — a steady stream of cash flow.

Rental properties can continue generating income regardless of daily market swings. Unlike dividend stocks, which depend on corporate earnings and board decisions in any given quarter, rental income offers far greater predictability.

Better yet, investing in real estate no longer requires a massive down payment or the responsibilities that come with being a landlord.

Crowdfunding platforms like Arrived let you invest in real estate without the burden of mortgages or managing tenants. And you can get started with as little as $100.

Backed by world-class investors like Jeff Bezos, Arrived lets you purchase shares of vacation and rental properties across the country. Arrived distributes any rental income generated by properties to investors monthly, allowing you to potentially set up a passive income stream without the extra work that comes with being a landlord of your own rental property.

The best part? For a limited time, when you open an account and add $1,000 or more, Arrived will credit your account with a 1% match.

Mogul is an option that might be worth a look for those looking to expand beyond vacation rentals.

Founded by former Goldman Sachs real estate investors, the team handpicks the top 1% of single-family rental homes nationwide for you. This way, you can invest in institutional-quality offerings for a fraction of the usual cost — while receiving monthly rental income, real-time appreciation and tax benefits.

Mogul carefully vets each property, requiring a minimum 12% return even in downside scenarios. Across the board, the platform features an average yearly return of 18.8%. Their cash-on-cash yields, meanwhile, average between 10% to 12% annually. With investments typically ranging between $15,000 and $40,000 per property, offerings often sell out in under three hours.

Getting started is a quick and easy process. You can sign up for an account and then browse available properties. Once you verify your information with their team, you can invest like a mogul in just a few clicks.

Double-check with an expert

Ultimately, investing isn't just about picking the next winning stock. Building long-term wealth also means managing risk, minimizing taxes and creating a plan that can weather both bull and bear markets.

That's where a financial advisor can add value. Rather than focusing on a single investment, an advisor can help build a diversified strategy tailored to your goals, risk tolerance and retirement timeline while helping you avoid emotional decisions during periods of market volatility.

For those with over $250,000 in savings, platforms like WiserAdvisor can help you find a vetted FINRA/SEC-registered advisor near you for free.

All you have to do is answer a few simple questions about your savings, retirement timeline and overall investment portfolio. From there, WiserAdvisor will review its network and match you with up to three vetted, reputable advisors aligned to your specific needs.

WiserAdvisor does the heavy lifting when vetting financial advisors on its roster. Each advisor is screened based on their years of experience, their SEC/FINRA registration and records and compensation criteria.

The best part? You can schedule a no-obligation consultation with your matches and see which advisor is the best fit for your long-term goals.

Note: WiserAdvisor is a matching service and does not provide financial advice directly. All matched advisors are third parties and specific financial results are not guaranteed.

- With files from Godwin Oluponmile.