Anthropic’s IPO Could Be a $240 Billion Moment for Amazon (AMZN)

Anthropic’s IPO Could Be a $240 Billion Moment for Amazon (AMZN)

Sheryar Siddiq

Wed, July 29, 2026 at 5:38 PM GMT+3 4 min read

• AMZN -1.11%
• SPCX -2.88%

The AI IPO wave of 2026 continues to produce outsized winners among the corporations that backed it, instead of just those going public. SpaceX's record-breaking debut earlier this year provided a windfall for its backers. Now, attention is shifting to what could be the year's largest listing yet.

Anthropic, the creator of the Claude family of AI models, privately filed its Form S-1 on June 1 and plans to go public as early as October, a listing that could put the company north of $1 trillion, considering that its most recent funding round in May valued it at $965 billion, and secondary-market trades have since pushed implied valuations to roughly $1.2 trillion.

The $240 Billion Balance-Sheet Windfall

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is expected to be one of the largest beneficiaries of that IPO, and not simply as a passive investor watching a share grow. So far, the company has invested over $13 billion in Anthropic, owns between 15% and 20% of the company, and stated in its most recent fundraising round that it would invest up to $20 billion more if specific commercial objectives were fulfilled. This represents a massive unrealized asset. At an implied $1.2 billion market capitalization for Anthropic, Amazon's equity share alone is worth between $180 billion and $240 billion.

Importantly, this value creation is already reflected in Amazon's financial records prior to the offering. The company realized $16.8 billion in pre-tax gains on its Anthropic investment in the first quarter of 2026 alone, aided by a $12.3 billion mark-to-market revaluation after Anthropic's spring funding round.

AWS Growth Acceleration

Beyond the immediate stock upside, the agreement fuels an operational flywheel that directly powers AWS. A successful public offering provides Anthropic with billions in new capital, the majority of which will be contractually allocated back into AWS for cloud infrastructure, custom Trainium AI silicon, and multi-gigawatt compute capacity.

This infrastructure pull-through prompted KeyBanc to retain an Overweight rating on Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) on July 16, boosting its price objective to $335 from $330. KeyBanc raised its net sales predictions for AWS, forecasting a 31% year-over-year revenue increase in both 2026 and 2027. Citing increased cloud usage and improving retail operating margins, the firm raised its operating income predictions by 4% for 2026 and 8% for 2027, estimating long-term net sales of $1,079 billion and operating income of $178.6 billion in 2028.

Hedge Fund Rebalancing and Concentration

However, institutional positioning paints a more cautious narrative than sell-side price target changes would indicate. Insider Monkey's Q1 2026 database revealed that 353 elite funds held Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) at the end of the quarter, down from 381 the previous quarter, indicating a significant drop in fund count even as analysts became more optimistic about AWS growth and the Anthropic stake's worth.

The tension worth watching is concentration risk, which runs in both directions: Amazon's AWS growth numbers increasingly factor in ongoing heavy spending from a single AI client whose own path toward consistent profitability has yet to be proven at scale, whereas Anthropic's infrastructure roadmap relies extensively on one cloud provider's chips and capacity. That said, Anthropic's public listing significantly reduces counterparty risk by obtaining multi-year public market liquidity to fund $100 billion+ AWS infrastructure obligations.

Insider Monkey's Take

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) provides an outstanding blend of mega-cap operational excellence and asymmetric venture-style equity opportunity. The market continues to underestimate the compounding power of a $180 billion to $240 billion Anthropic investment combined with the strong 31% AWS revenue growth. Overall, Amazon remains a high-conviction Buy as the Anthropic IPO approaches.

While we acknowledge the potential of AMZN as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on thebest short-term AI stock.

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