What a $3,000 Investment in SpaceX Could Be Worth by 2030

What a $3,000 Investment in SpaceX Could Be Worth by 2030

Lawrence Rothman, CFA, The Motley Fool

Wed, July 29, 2026 at 4:25 PM GMT+3 4 min read

• SPCX -0.31%
• NVDA +2.65%

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), commonly called SpaceX, completed its initial public offering (IPO) on June 12. Investors were anxiously awaiting this much-hyped IPO.

In its more than two months as a public company, the share price has been volatile. After going public at $135, the stock closed at $160.95 on the first day of trading. The closing price reached a high of $211.39 on June 16 and a low of $113.29 on July 27.

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Clearly, predicting short-term price movements seems pointless. But what about looking ahead a few years? With a few key assumptions, investors can try to project the stock price and the potential value of an investment at the end of 2030.

Money-losing business

While SpaceX has been growing revenue, it's losing money. First-quarter revenue rose 15.4% year over year to $4.7 billion, but the company's loss under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) widened from $528 million to $4.3 billion.

For all of 2025, SpaceX lost $4.9 billion, versus a $791 million profit in 2024. The widening loss came despite a 33.2% increase in revenue to $18.7 billion.

Digging deeper, SpaceX's businesses span a range of activities, including building and launching rockets and operating a broadband data network, an artificial intelligence business (xAI), and the social media site X (formerly Twitter).

It operates these businesses under the connectivity, space, and AI segments, but only the first one currently operates profitably. Connectivity's first-quarter revenue gained 31.6% year over year to $3.3 billion, while operating income rose 15% to $1.2 million. Space saw revenue drop 28.4% year over year to $619 million, and AI's top line increased 12.5%.

Doing some math

To calculate SpaceX's future stock price, you need to project sales and apply a price-to-sales multiple. Ideally, you'd use earnings and the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, but SpaceX loses money.

It's challenging but necessary to come up with sales growth and a P/S multiple. SpaceX went public with a 94 P/S multiple. That's more than 25 times the S&P 500 index's current P/S ratio of 3.7.

Assuming 30% annualized revenue growth through 2030, SpaceX's top line will increase from 2025's $18.7 billion to $69.4 billion.

Applying today's P/S multiple of 78 results in a $5.4 trillion market cap, more than triple the current $1.5 trillion. That means your $3,000 investment would grow to more than $10,800.

Of course, that's using optimistic assumptions. What if the P/S multiple contracts to a still-high 30 and revenue grows at an average annualized rate of 15%?

In that case, revenue would reach $37.6 billion at the end of 2030. Applying the 30 multiple results in a $1.1 trillion market cap. Under this scenario, you'd have lost 25%, and your $3,000 investment would be worth only $2,250.

Working through this exercise suggests the market, despite the stock price drop, is still pricing in fast sales growth. Shareholders could be very disappointed -- and poorer -- if SpaceX fails to meet expectations.

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Lawrence Rothman, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

What a $3,000 Investment in SpaceX Could Be Worth by 2030 was originally published by The Motley Fool