Tesla Eyes Its Worst July as Cathie Wood Buys the Dip. Who’s Right?

Vandita Jadeja

Thu, July 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM GMT+3 4 min read

Quick Read

Tesla crashed 28% this month after Q2 EPS missed by 39%, but Cathie Wood is buying and 24/7 Wall St. sees 28% upside.
GM trades at a 7x forward P/E versus Tesla's 171x multiple, and Rivian's $1 billion cash burn makes Tesla the safer EV bet.
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Tesla is having a July to forget, and Cathie Wood is taking the other side of the trade. With the stock in near freefall since its Q2 earnings miss, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed Wednesday at $298.32, down 27.56% in the past month and 33.67% year to date.

24/7 Wall St.

Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Tesla is $381.33, implying 27.82% upside, and we rate the stock a buy with high confidence at 90%. Wood looks directionally right.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary

How Tesla Got to Its Worst July

The selloff traces to the July 22 Q2 report. Revenue of $28.24 billion beat by 7.1% on record deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, but non-GAAP EPS of $0.33 missed the $0.54 consensus by 38.51%.

Operating margin collapsed to 1.4%, free cash flow swung to negative $1.09 billion, and OpEx jumped 47% as AI infrastructure and Optimus buildout pressured the P&L. Shares have since given up 20.24% in a single week, trading within a dollar of its 52-week low of $297.82.

TSLA Earnings Explorer — 24/7 Wall St.

Why Bulls See a Breakout Ahead

Wood's dip-buying reflects a legitimate operating story beneath Q2's ugly EPS. FSD subscriptions hit 1.48 million, up 56%, with a 55% attach rate on new North American deliveries. Robotaxi expanded to seven US metros, Cybercab production began at Gigafactory Texas, and cash climbed to $43.52 billion, up 179% year over year.

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The Street's consensus target sits at $399.45, and our bull case models a $463.24 one-year target if Optimus and Robotaxi monetization accelerate. ARK has framed Tesla primarily as an AI and autonomy platform.

TSLA Analyst Ratings — 24/7 Wall St.

What Could Go Wrong

The bear case starts with valuation. Even after the selloff, Tesla trades at a 171x implied forward P/E, and Q2's $5.79 billion in capex means free cash flow stays stressed. Reddit sentiment turned bearish post-earnings, with r/stocks scoring between 28 and 38. Polymarket assigns just a 15.5% probability to an Optimus release by year-end.

Our bear case pegs the one-year floor at $344.21. Bulls counter that margin compression reflects heavy investment spending, and the 50% Services growth suggests the software flywheel is real.

TSLA Price Scenario — 24/7 Wall St.

How Tesla Compares to General Motors and Rivian

General Motors (NYSE: GM) offers a valuation contrast. GM trades near $89 with a P/E of 30 and raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $12 to $14, implying a forward P/E of roughly 7. That fraction of Tesla's multiple makes our $381.33 target look aggressive on legacy-auto math but reasonable if you underwrite Tesla's AI segments.

Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) is the growth-stage EV counterpoint. Rivian posted Q1 2026 revenue of $1.38 billion, up 11.4%, with software and services growing 49% on the Volkswagen JV, but burned $1.08 billion in free cash flow. Compared to Tesla's $43.52 billion cash pile and profitable auto segment, Tesla looks like the safer EV bet.

The Bottom Line at $298

Wood is on the right side of this trade. Our 24/7 Wall St. price target of $381.33 implies 27.82% upside with 90% confidence, and Tesla trades within a dollar of its 52-week low. The bull thesis rests on whether FSD, Robotaxi, and Optimus produce meaningful revenue by 2027.

The bear thesis hinges on whether the $25 billion capital budget destroys returns before the AI story arrives. On balance, the risk-reward at $298 skews constructive.

TSLA Price Target — 24/7 Wall St.

Extending our price target model at a 15.31% base-case annualized trajectory:

These projections assume Tesla executes on Robotaxi, Optimus, and FSD monetization. Significant upside or downside could result from autonomy regulation or a slower Optimus ramp.