Hog Prices Are Falling. How to Trade Them Now.

Hog Prices Are Falling. How to Trade Them Now.

Thu, July 30, 2026 at 6:28 PM GMT+3 2 min read

• HE=F +1.62%
• LE=F -0.20%

October lean hog (HEV26) futures present a selling opportunity on more price weakness.

See on the daily bar chart for October lean hog futures that Wednesday's selloff put a price uptrend in serious jeopardy. See, too, at the bottom of the chart that the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator has just produced a bearish line crossover signal, whereby the blue MACD line crossed below the red trigger line. Seasonality studies also are now favoring the hog market bears.

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Fundamentally, the recent decline in cattle futures prices and in wholesale beef prices will likely make for less expensive beef prices at the meat counter. Seasonally, hog slaughter levels tend to start rising in the fall.

A move in October lean hogs below chart support at $85.00 would become a selling opportunity. The downside price objective would be $77.00, or below. Technical resistance, for which to place a protective buy stop just above, is located at $88.50.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any trades and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

On the date of publication, Jim Wyckoff did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com