Microsoft Committed $190B CapEx and Pulled SanDisk Out of Their Slump

Microsoft Committed $190B CapEx and Pulled SanDisk Out of Their Slump

Mitchell Duran

Thu, July 30, 2026 at 10:46 PM GMT+3 2 min read

• SNDK -5.09%

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The buy-and-sell ping-pong between China and US memory stocks keeps going, and nobody's called next serve yet.

SanDisk is up 23% at the time of writing, now trading at $1,250, while Micron (MU) is up 15%, trading at $851. Year to date, SanDisk is up 355%, and up over 2,800% over the past year, the kind of chart that makes a person check if the decimal point wandered off somewhere.

On April 30, SanDisk reported $5.95 billion in revenue, up 97% sequentially and above guidance, with enterprise SSD revenue up 233% led by TLC while QLC Stargate simmers on the back burner. Those earnings sent the stock doubling from around $1,100 to an all-time high near $2,350 in late June.

SanDisk's bounce owes something to Microsoft too, which projected $50 billion in capex for its upcoming fiscal first quarter (Q1 FY2027) and $190 billion planned for 2026. Of that, $25 billion is earmarked for memory and storage, a direct shot in the arm for SanDisk's financial confidence. All well and good for the company, but the one country SanDisk keeps one eye on is China.

After CXMT's Shanghai debut (a Chinese DRAM specialist whose stock popped 466% in a single day), a sell-off hit the usual names. SanDisk (SNDK) and Micron (MU) were both down almost 40% over the past month, the market's way of reminding everyone that scarcity stories cut both directions.

SanDisk's newest peer is Yangtze Memory Technologies. YMTC makes NAND flash, the same product SanDisk sells, and its global share has climbed from 8% to 13% in a year, making it the fourth-largest supplier. Its first-quarter revenue hit $2.6 billion, up 445%.

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That should worry SanDisk holders, because everything good happening to this stock depends on chips staying scarce. Scarcity is what lets SanDisk name its price, and YMTC is in the business of ruining that particular party.

At the other end of this sits OpenAI. The AI company just cut GPT-5.6 Luna's price by 80%, crediting efficiency gains. If cheap AI at volume needs a flood of cheap, ordinary chips rather than scarce, premium ones, SanDisk sells more bits and earns less per bit. More volume, thinner profit, the trade nobody wants.

SNDK and MU are back from their springtime lows, the bounce everyone was waiting for. The question is how long it lasts.

SanDisk's next earnings report lands August 5, 2026, covering fiscal fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2026, with the call after market close.

Investor Day follows on August 13.