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HSBC Says AI Overspending Concerns Are Driving Market Sentiment

Fiona Craig

Sat, August 1, 2026 at 4:00 PM GMT+3 2 min read

• HSBC -0.63%

Concerns that major technology companies are spending too aggressively on artificial intelligence infrastructure have become the dominant theme influencing AI-related equities, according to HSBC, as investors continue to shift between competing market narratives in 2026.

In a recent research note, HSBC analyst Alastair Pinder introduced a proprietary clustering model that tracks how different AI themes influence global equity markets by analyzing the performance of hyperscalers, semiconductor companies, software firms and Chinese internet stocks.

Investors Continue to Rotate Between AI Themes

HSBC said equity markets and broader market internals have experienced sharp swings this year as investors "jump between competing AI narratives."

The bank highlighted the launch of Moonshot's Kimi K3 model and reports of increasing lithography competition from mainland China as recent developments that have influenced investor positioning.

According to the firm's framework, market behavior currently falls into five distinct AI-driven regimes.

Hyperscaler Overspending Seen as the Most Likely Scenario

HSBC assigned the highest probability, 37%, to what it describes as the "hyperscaler overspend" scenario.

Under this narrative, companies supplying data center infrastructure and semiconductor products outperform, while firms making the largest capital investments lag "at the expense of the capex spenders."

Within this scenario, technology hardware stocks generate annualized returns of 12.3%, while semiconductor companies produce annualized gains of 11.8%, reinforcing investor preference for markets such as South Korea and Taiwan.

Other AI Narratives Continue to Shape Markets

The bank assigned a 26% probability to "AI positioning capitulation," a scenario in which investors unwind crowded AI trades and rotate into more defensive sectors, including pharmaceuticals and biotechnology. Under those conditions, semiconductor stocks decline by 14.3%.

HSBC estimated a 20% probability for "China competition concerns," a theme it believes has regained momentum following the launch of Kimi K3, encouraging investors to rotate toward mainland China's media and consumer services sectors.

The remaining scenarios include "AI disruption fears," with a 9% probability, and "AI euphoria," with an 8% probability. The latter represents a broad risk-on environment in which AI supply chain companies lead the market and semiconductor stocks rise by 19.1%.

HSBC said the model is intended to help investors understand how shifts in AI narratives influence market leadership and the performance of emerging-market equities.

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