Morgan Stanley, yükseltmeye rağmen neden Rivian'ı satın almak istemiyor?

Why Morgan Stanley won’t call Rivian a buy despite upgrade

Opeyemi Babalola

Sun, August 2, 2026 at 10:13 PM GMT+3 4 min read

Nine years ago, Tesla nearly drained its cash reserves trying to scale a new vehicle line, a stretch of chaos Elon Musk later called production hell.

Rivian (RIVN) is now running its own version of that gauntlet with the R2, the affordable SUV meant to turn a niche automaker into a mass-market one. The comparison is not exact, but the tension is familiar.

This week delivered a strange twist on that old script. Rivian beat nearly every number Wall Street was watching, and its stock fell anyway.

Rivian beat almost every number that mattered

Revenue reached $1.658 billion in the second quarter, a 27% jump from a year earlier, according to CNBC.

The company posted a $179 million gross profit, a sharp reversal from a loss in the same period last year.

Rivian began shipping the R2 to customers on June 9 and hosted a record 57,000 demo drives during the quarter, according to a press release. Full details sit in the company's quarterly filing with the SEC.

Look closer at that gross profit figure, though, and the picture gets more complicated. Software and services generated $215 million of it, while the automotive segment posted a $36 million gross loss, according to CNBC.

Rivian's cars, in other words, still lose money on every unit built. The profit only exists because software revenue, largely tied to Rivian's joint venture with Volkswagen, is carrying the rest of the business.

That joint venture alone contributed $308 million of the quarter's software revenue, according to Quartz.

Management also raised full-year delivery guidance to a range of 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles and trimmed planned capital spending by $250 million at the midpoint, CNBC reported.

That is not the profile of a company losing its grip on the ramp. It is the profile of one executing roughly as promised, on paper at least.

Rivian shares fell more than 9% Friday even after Q2 revenue rose 27% and Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $14 from $13.Smith Collection/Gado / Getty Images

The market punished the beat anyway

Shares closed down more than 9% Friday to $15.22, wiping out the after-hours pop that followed Thursday's report, according to The Motley Fool.

Investors were not rejecting the numbers. They were pricing in fresh dilution from a $1.3 billion equity sale completed in July, alongside rising component costs that threaten margins just as R2 output climbs.

That reaction is the real story here, more than the earnings beat itself. Good quarters no longer buy EV makers the benefit of the doubt. Investors want proof the ramp holds up, not just a friendlier forecast for it.

Morgan Stanley's math explains the standoff

Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $14 from $13 in a note published Friday, crediting stronger-than-expected R2 demand while keeping its underweight rating intact.

The firm splits that target into $8 a share for the auto business and $6 for software and services, a structure that leans on Rivian eventually monetizing data the way Tesla monetizes its driver-assistance software.

Wall Street remains split on what that means. TD Cowen raised its target to $21 with a buy rating the same day, and Needham held its buy rating and $23 target, according to TipRanks.

That spread, from $14 to $23 on the same earnings report, shows analysts agree on the demand story and disagree entirely on the execution risk.

Three signposts will decide who is right

Morgan Stanley is watching whether Rivian can launch point-to-point autonomy in select markets by year-end, a milestone tied to its in-house RAP1 chip and LiDAR hardware still in development.

The firm expects more detail at an AI and autonomy event later this year.

It is also watching the production ramp itself. Hitting the raised delivery guidance requires shipping roughly 42,000 to 47,000 vehicles in the second half of 2026, nearly double the 22,559 delivered in the first six months, according to Electrek.

The final signpost is cost. R2 needs to turn a positive gross margin as cheaper trims arrive in 2027, or the entire profitability timeline slips further out.

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Rivian is not the only company betting that autonomy revenue can rescue an unprofitable vehicle business before manufacturing scale does.

Uber agreed in March to invest up to $1.25 billion in Rivian and purchase up to 50,000 autonomous R2s for its ride-hailing network, according to CNBC.

That deal mirrors how Tesla has leaned on software promises to support a valuation its car sales alone cannot justify.

Friday's selloff suggests investors are done extending that same patience by default. Rivian will get another chance to prove the ramp works when it reports third-quarter results, right as R2 production is supposed to shift from one shift to two.

Until then, the stock will likely keep trading on execution risk rather than on the vehicle everyone agrees is good.

This story was originally published by TheStreet on Aug 2, 2026, where it first appeared in the Investing section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.