Toyota set to report higher revenue and profit despite global sales slip: Earnings preview

Toyota set to report higher revenue and profit despite global sales slip: Earnings preview

Pras Subramanian · Senior Reporter

Mon, August 3, 2026 at 8:04 PM GMT+3 2 min read

• TM -1.64%

Toyota (TM) is scheduled to report fiscal first quarter results on Tuesday, with investors expecting the world's largest automaker to post higher revenue and earnings, despite falling sales.

Toyota is expected to post FY Q1 adjusted revenue of 13.06 trillion yen ($83.4 billion), per Bloomberg consensus, up about 7% from 12.25 trillion yen ($78.3 billion) a year ago. Toyota's adjusted earnings per share are estimated at 82.44 yen ($0.53), with adjusted EBITDA coming in at 1.54 trillion yen ($9.8 billion). Net income margin is expected at 8%.

However, analysts see adjusted gross margin of 16%, down from 18% a year earlier, and an EBITDA margin of 12%, versus 14%, implying cost pressures.

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Last quarter, Toyota lowered its operating income forecast by over 20% to 3 trillion yen for the financial year ending March 2027, while raising its sales revenue forecast by 0.6%. Investors will be looking for Toyota to improve that outlook, following results from large US rivals like GM and Ford.

Toyota's earnings follow sales and production figures the company released last week. Global sales, including Lexus, fell 2.9% in the first half of 2026 to 5.01 million vehicles, the first January-June decline in two years. Overseas sales dropped 4.3% to 4.20 million — the first first-half decline in four years — while sales inside Japan rose 4.7% to 804,721.

Interestingly, Toyota's domestic sales have now risen for three straight months, while overseas sales have fallen for five straight months. June sales edged up 0.06% to 868,454 vehicles, the first year-on-year monthly increase in five months.

Electrified vehicle sales (both hybrid and EV) remained a bright spot, rising 9.1% to 2.71 million in the first half, led by EV sales that more than doubled to 193,172. Electrified sales rose 13% in North America, 12% in Europe, and 30% in Asia excluding China, though China was roughly flat. Lexus sales, however, fell 9.2% to 393,869.

Toyota also aims to onshore much of its production, including to the US. Last month, Toyota said it will invest $3.6 billion to add a second assembly line at its San Antonio plant, creating 2,000 jobs and shifting Tacoma production out of one of its Mexico plants and into Texas over the next four years. The San Antonio plant will eventually be the exclusive US home of Tundra, Sequoia, and Tacoma production.

The move comes after the White House said it wouldn't renew the landmark USMCA trade deal between the US, Mexico, and Canada, with negotiations ongoing.

Pras Subramanian is Lead Auto Reporter for Yahoo Finance. You can follow him on X and on Instagram.

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