Situational Awareness Lost 67%. CoreWeave (CRWV) and Sandisk (SNDK) Show How Leverage Turned an AI Bet Into a Fire Sale

Situational Awareness Lost 67%. CoreWeave (CRWV) and Sandisk (SNDK) Show How Leverage Turned an AI Bet Into a Fire Sale

Tue, August 4, 2026 at 3:23 PM GMT+3 3 min read

• SNDK +6.03%
• CRWV +19.49%

Situational Awareness lost 67% in July and sold most of its roughly $16 billion public-equity portfolio to Citadel, Reuters reported on July 30 and July 31. CoreWeave, Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWV) and Sandisk Corporation (NASDAQ:SNDK) were among the concentrated AI holdings caught between falling prices, leverage, and evaporating liquidity.

The latest completed 13F quarter shows the scale, but not the fund's exact July exposure. At the end of Q1 2026, Situational Awareness reported 7.18 million CoreWeave shares worth $556.1 million and 1.14 million Sandisk shares worth $724.4 million, plus call positions in both. Sandisk then fell 54% in July. As losses reduced the fund's equity cushion, borrowed exposure made selling compulsory. The fund removed leverage after warning that it had come close to permanent capital impairment.

The operating thesis was not frivolous. Sandisk's fiscal Q3 revenue reached $5.95 billion, up 97% sequentially, as data-center revenue climbed 233%. It guided fiscal Q4 revenue to $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion. CoreWeave's Q1 revenue rose 112% to $2.08 billion, and backlog reached $99.4 billion. Only 36% of its $98.8 billion in remaining performance obligations was expected to be recognized by March 31, 2028. Those figures show the operating evidence behind the fund's bullish thesis on both names.

They also conceal different risks. CoreWeave reported a $740 million net loss, $536 million of quarterly interest expense, and planned $31 billion to $35 billion of 2026 capital spending. Long-term memory agreements can leave it paying above-market prices if supply loosens. Sandisk benefits from those price floors, but its shares were still up more than 2,400% over 12 months even after July's collapse. Even strong earnings could not prevent a sharp reversal after that extraordinary run.

That asymmetry is very important not to overlook for the stocks. Sandisk has positive earnings leverage but cyclical multiple risk; CoreWeave has contracted demand, but financing costs can absorb much of its growth.

Insider Monkey tracked 114 hedge funds holding Sandisk Corporation (NASDAQ) at the end of Q1 2026, up from 75 in Q4 2025. CoreWeave's July 15 short interest was 64.36 million shares, 18.97% of float, with roughly 2.2 days to cover on Finviz's current volume calculation. That figure signals real skepticism, although some positions may hedge CoreWeave's $3.5 billion April convertible-note offering rather than express a pure bearish view.

The collapse is not a sell signal by itself, however. It proves that a long-duration thesis cannot rescue a leveraged portfolio from a short-duration margin call. Sandisk deserves a wait until its August 5 results reset earnings expectations. CoreWeave, Inc. (NASDAQ) remains the riskier stock and warrants caution until revenue growth produces durable operating profit after financing costs.

While we acknowledge the potential of CRWV and SNDK as investments, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short term stocks.

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