This SpaceX number is spooking already skittish investors

This SpaceX number is spooking already skittish investors

Brian Sozzi · Executive Editor

Wed, August 5, 2026 at 4:08 PM GMT+3 3 min read

• SPCX -9.93%
• GOOG +1.02%

SpaceX (SPCX) stock continues to lose altitude. But for this brief moment in time, the decline has nothing to do with a post-IPO hangover.

The stock is down 11% in early trading on Wednesday to $111 — light-years removed from the record high of about $225 — as investors were rattled by SpaceX's planned capital expenditures.

The harsh reaction is not unlike the one afforded to other tech names this earnings season, such as Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), which promised that big-time money will be spent on advancing AI initiatives.

(SPCX )

Go deeper with AlphaSpace

112.88 -12.45 (-9.93%)

As of 9:40:13 AM EDT. Market Open.

$65 billion

The Yahoo Finance AlphaSpace stat of the morning reflects a rough estimate of how much SpaceX said it would spend in 2026.

Total capital expenditures for SpaceX in the second quarter were $18.4 billion, well above analyst estimates of around $6 billion. Commentary by executives on the earnings call indicated that third and fourth quarter capex could each remain at similar levels as that of the second quarter, implying full-year capex of about $65 billion. Wall Street was modeling for $50 billion in capital expenditures for SpaceX this year.

Zooming out

Not helping sentiment for SpaceX was the lack of formal financial guidance.

Execs did share several long-term targets, however, including a $100 billion revenue run rate by the end of 2026. It also projected $1 trillion in revenue in 2030, a year earlier than previously articulated.

"Prior to the IPO, the financial projections we had were reaching $1 trillion in revenue in 2031. We now expect that to be in 2030. There's a non-zero chance of that being in 2029," billionaire SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk said on the earnings call.

The focus on aggressive capex and no guidance overshadowed the fact that SpaceX beat estimates out of the box.

Second quarter revenue of $7.8 billion came in above the Street's $6.8 billion estimate. EBITDA of $3.5 billion also exceeded the Street's $2.1 estimate. The beats were driven primarily by AI segment revenue, as SpaceX contracted about $14 billion of cloud services agreements in the quarter.

SpaceX also noted that the quarter marked its best-ever quarter for Starlink subscriber growth, tallying 1.7 million.

Wall Street chatter

• KeyBanc analyst Michael Leshock: "Overall, we view the results of the core business positively, though understand the market's initial reaction given its significant capital spending plans pressuring near- to mid-term free cash flow, as well as the limited financial guidance. We continue to highlight the importance of Starship achieving a rapid and fully reusable launch cadence, and Elon confirmed that its first-ever catch of the Starship upper stage at the pad could be attempted on its next flight (tentatively late August). This is among the biggest milestones toward achieving both full reusability and a rapid launch cadence. Uncertainty remains amid upcoming lockup period expiration, including ~11% of total shares on Thursday (August 6). We continue to see several puts and takes, while continued progress and execution on improving Starship's launch cadence remains the key watch point."

• JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth: "We now project capex of nearly $200B in both 2027 & 2028, which further pressures FCF in 2027, a trend we see across the hyperscalers. We recognize the upcoming lock-up expiration on Thursday, August 6 of 911.5M shares, potentially increasing the current float of 639M shares by 143%, but we also believe there has already been significant pre-positioning ahead of this first expiration, the largest of many over the next several months."

Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance's Executive Editor, host of the Power Players with Brian Sozzi podcast, and a member of Yahoo Finance's editorial leadership team. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi, Instagram, and LinkedIn. Tips on stories? Email brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com.

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