SpaceX Climbs 3% as Lockup Expiration Fails to Trigger a Selloff; AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab Rise 5%

David Moadel

Thu, August 6, 2026 at 6:11 PM GMT+3 5 min read

Quick Read

SpaceX (SPCX) and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) shares advanced as SpaceX's 911 million unlocked shares sparked a rally instead of a selloff.
Intuitive Machines (LUNR) led the broader complex with a 8% gain, while the Procure Space ETF (UFO) climbed 1% on sector-wide momentum.
SpaceX's Q2 revenue beat estimates by 15%, with AI segment revenue surging 247% YoY and Starlink subscribers doubling to 12 million.
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Space stocks are climbing early Thursday, led by SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares rising 3% to $111.14 as the company's first and largest post-IPO share lockup tranche expires. Evidently, the feared selloff didn't occur this morning.

Rocket Lab

AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) shares are jumping 5% to $72, while Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) shares are rising 5% to $78.57. Meanwhile, the Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ:UFO) is up 1% to $47.19 as sector momentum builds.

The rally caps a volatile stretch for SpaceX stock, which had been trading below its June IPO price after a post-earnings selloff.

Lockup Expiration Fails to Trigger the Feared Selloff

Today marks the first and largest of nine staggered lockup tranches for SpaceX. The tranche unlocks 911.5 million shares, 143% more than the 638.9 million shares floated in June's IPO, more than doubling the public float to 11.8% of shares outstanding from 4.9%.

According to Yahoo Finance's Pras Subramanian, Wall Street is split on SPCX stock. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas frames the unlock as a buying opportunity and calls SpaceX a potential generational compounder, while Morningstar's Nicolas Owens expects most eligible shares to be sold given low cost basis but says much of the dilution may already be priced in. Bank of America's Ron Epstein calls it a near-term technical drag rather than a verdict on the company, and JPMorgan's Doug Anmuth cites significant pre-positioning ahead of the expiration.

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A StockTwits AI sentiment summary describes a divided community on SPCX stock, with the bulls pointing to institutional demand and squeeze potential and the bears arguing that the valuation is disconnected from reality. Reddit swung sharply into the event as well. A widely upvoted post titled "SpaceX will plummet on 8/6" drew 743 upvotes and 226 comments before bullish tone reasserted itself.

Fundamental support comes from SpaceX's Q2 2026 results. The company reported revenue of $7.81 billion, beating estimates by 14.6%, with AI segment revenue surging 247% year over year (YoY) to $2.56 billion and Starlink subscribers doubling to 12 million.

AST SpaceMobile Accelerates Its European Rollout

AST SpaceMobile stock is rallying on accelerated network integration testing across the UK, Ireland, Romania, France, the Czech Republic, Germany, Spain, and Ukraine. Announced carrier partners include Vodafone (NASDAQ:VOD), Orange, Telefonica, Deutsche Telekom, and Vodafone Ukraine.

The rollout leverages AST's BlueBird satellite constellation and nearly 60 mobile network operator partners representing over 3 billion subscribers. AST shares are up 42% over the past year as enthusiasm builds around a European commercial ramp.

Rocket Lab Notches Another Electron Success

Rocket Lab shares are climbing after the company completed its 92nd Electron mission ("The Grain Goddess Provides"), the 8th launch for the iQPS Earth-imaging (QPS-SAR) constellation with 100% mission success for that customer. Another 10 dedicated Electron launches are booked by iQPS before 2030.

Rocket Lab's Q1 2026 revenue reached $200.4 million, up 63.5% YoY, and record backlog sits at $2.2 billion. Rocket Lab was also selected for the Department of War's Space Based Interceptor program under Golden Dome for America in partnership with Raytheon, and the Neutron medium-lift vehicle remains on track for its debut later in 2026.

Sector Momentum Lifts the Broader Complex

Virgin Galactic (NYSE:SPCE) shares are rising 2% to $2.94, Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR) shares are jumping 8% to $15.09, and Planet Labs (NYSE:PL) shares are climbing 4% to $23.29.

The Procure Space ETF offers diversified exposure to the theme, with AST SpaceMobile among its top holdings at a 3.5% weight. The fund is concentrated in a handful of names and has shown meaningful volatility, so position sizing matters.

What to Watch

The near-term put/call ratio on SpaceX options expiring August 7 sits at 1.42, signaling active hedging into the event, while the full-chain ratio is 1.1. Polymarket traders assign a 97.1% probability that SpaceX stock finishes the week above $90 and a 76% probability above $100.

Investors can watch for whether SpaceX stock holds its bid into the close, since a sustained rally despite newly unlocked supply would strengthen the technical case for the shares. Rocket Lab's Q2 2026 report is due August 10, offering the next scheduled catalyst for the sector.

SpaceX stock absorbed a feared technical overhang without breaking, and satellite peers are riding the sentiment shift. A cautious, moderate position size is prudent given the volatility across many names in the space sector over the past month.