Microsoft’s AI Revenue is 70% OpenAI

Microsoft’s AI Revenue is 70% OpenAI

Mitchell Duran

Thu, August 6, 2026 at 11:30 PM GMT+3 2 min read

• NVDA +2.27%
• MSFT +0.03%

BREAKING NEWS

Our analysts just identified a stock with the potential to be the next Nvidia. Tell us how you invest and we'll show you why it's our #1 pick. Tap here.

OpenAI has always been a little cagey about its revenue.

Whenever the subject comes up, as it did in late July with CFO Sarah Friar, it gets handled colloquially, presumably to give off the vibe that everything is fine.

"Q2 was no slouch," Friar told OpenAI staffers internally, according to a partial transcript of the meeting reviewed by CNBC.

Notice that Friar never reports an actual number. The last time anyone at the company did was late February 2026, when it put out roughly $25 billion in ARR, or about $2 billion a month. That disclosure got picked apart once it emerged the company had an operating loss of around $7 billion for the quarter.

Sam Altman handles the same subject differently. Asked about it on the BG² Pod in early November 2025, OpenAI's CEO told host Brad Gerstner he would personally find a buyer for his shares if he wanted to sell. Enough, essentially.

Which makes Microsoft's recent filing that much more anxiety-inducing. OpenAI accounts for roughly 70% of Microsoft's AI revenue, with $24.1 billion in sales tied to the company for the fiscal year ending in June, a massive chunk of the $37 billion annualized AI run rate that CEO Satya Nadella keeps touting.

One stock. Nvidia-level potential. 30M+ investors trust Moby to find it first. Get the pick. Tap here.

A company spokesperson told Bloomberg the figure covers "all sales" and "revenue share" from OpenAI, which could mean the revenue-sharing agreement, or OpenAI paying for Azure infrastructure like any other customer, or "other Microsoft services" that nobody has bothered to define.

None of this has to be clear, because OpenAI has yet to IPO and has pushed going public to sometime in 2027. Altman reportedly held off watching the SpaceX listing get taken apart, evidence that markets are currently punishing companies making long-term infrastructure bets in favor of short-term quarterly profits.

That, and OpenAI isn't turning a profit.

The company projects it will be cash flow positive by 2030 at the earliest, and only if it generates $270 billion to $280 billion annually to outpace its spending, per The Information in February 2026. Set that beside a projected cumulative cash burn north of $600 billion through 2030 and it gets hard to take Microsoft's "recorded sales" language at face value. OpenAI is running on continuous mega-rounds from non-Microsoft investors like Thrive, SoftBank, MGX, and Nvidia.

So what happens to Nadella's $37 billion when the equity checks stop clearing?