Palo Alto Networks'ün Değeri Yaklaşık 300 Milyar $. Bir Yıl Önce Yaklaşık 113 Milyar $ Değerindeydi.

Palo Alto Networks Is Worth Nearly $300 Billion. A Year Ago It Was Worth About $113 Billion.

Daniel Sparks, The Motley Fool

Sun, August 9, 2026 at 6:54 PM GMT+3 5 min read

• PANW +1.22%
• NVDA +2.27%

A year ago, cybersecurity company Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ: PANW) carried a market value of about $113 billion. As of this writing, it stands near $295 billion. That's a gain of more than 150% in 12 months, leaving shares within about 4% of their 52-week high. The climb spans the whole year, with the stock's 52-week range running from $139.57 to $376.98.

A move like that usually means the business transformed. And Palo Alto's business has changed. It bought identity-security company CyberArk and observability company Chronosphere, and management says demand for securing artificial intelligence (AI) deployments is accelerating its bookings.

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But revenue was guided to grow about 24% in fiscal 2026, a year that ended July 31 -- and a decent chunk of that growth was acquired. The company's market value grew about six times faster.

So what changed enough to justify nearly tripling the company's value in a year? Less than the stock price implies, I'd argue.

The quarter behind the rerating

Palo Alto's fiscal third quarter (the period ended April 30) was strong. Revenue rose 31% year over year to $3.0 billion, up from $2.3 billion, though $388 million of it came from the newly acquired CyberArk and Chronosphere. Strip those out, and revenue grew about 14%. That's solid for a company this size, but it isn't triple-the-value growth.

The faster-growing line is next-generation security annual recurring revenue (ARR), the annualized value of subscriptions to the company's newer security products. That figure reached $8.1 billion, up 60% year over year. The acquisitions contributed $1.6 billion of it, and excluding them, growth was still 28% from about $5.1 billion a year earlier. Management expects $8.90 billion to $8.95 billion by fiscal year-end, and remaining performance obligations climbed 36% to $18.4 billion.

However you slice those numbers, the newer product lines keep growing quickly while the legacy firewall business matures.

"Q3 was a standout quarter for Palo Alto Networks, with accelerating organic bookings growth as customers turn to us to secure their AI deployments at scale," CEO Nikesh Arora said in the earnings release.

Profitability is more complicated. On a non-GAAP (adjusted) basis, earnings per share rose 6% year over year to $0.85. Under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), the company swung to a $177 million quarterly loss from a $262 million year-ago profit in a quarter that absorbed the two acquisitions. And management says it remains on track for a 40% adjusted free cash flow margin in fiscal 2028.

So the business is bigger, growing steadily, and executing on a huge acquisition. All true. But none of it is two and a half times better than it was a year ago.

What the price now assumes

The bulk of the stock's gain came from investors paying more for each dollar of earnings. At about $362 per share, the stock trades at roughly 96 times the midpoint of management's own adjusted earnings-per-share guidance of $3.77 to $3.79 for fiscal 2026. For comparison, adjusted earnings per share grew 6% last quarter.

A multiple like that assumes the AI-security opportunity turns Palo Alto into a much larger, much more profitable company -- and that the CyberArk integration goes smoothly while it happens. It could work out that way. Of course, the company has absorbed acquisitions well in the past, and security spending tends to hold up even when budgets tighten. That's arguably the strongest part of the bull case.

But the bar for the next report is already set: When Palo Alto reports fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year results on Sept. 1, management's own targets call for quarterly revenue of about $3.35 billion, up 32% year over year, and next-generation security ARR near $8.9 billion. Meeting those numbers keeps the story intact. It doesn't make the stock cheaper.

I think Palo Alto Networks is one of the best businesses in cybersecurity, and its AI-security position looks stronger after the CyberArk deal, not weaker. At half the valuation, I'd be interested. At 96 times this year's expected adjusted earnings, though, years of excellent execution look priced in already, and the growth backing that up is good rather than extraordinary.

Could the company grow into this valuation? Sure, over enough years. But the stock's near-tripling did most of its work through the multiple investors are paying, and multiples can compress a lot faster than earnings compound.

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Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Palo Alto Networks. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Palo Alto Networks Is Worth Nearly $300 Billion. A Year Ago It Was Worth About $113 Billion. was originally published by The Motley Fool