Gelecek Yıl Google Cloud Gelirinin % 48 'i Hala Kâr Etmemiş Sadece 2 Şirketten Gelebilir

48% of Google Cloud Revenue Next Year Could Come From Just 2 Companies That Have Still Never Turned a Profit

AJ Tiarsmith

Mon, August 10, 2026 at 2:51 PM GMT+3 4 min read

Quick Read

• UBS estimates OpenAI and Anthropic will drive 48% of GOOGL Cloud revenue next year, while MSFT's Intelligent Cloud saw 69% of its growth from OpenAI alone.

• Ed Zitron warns OpenAI's $20.9 billion 2025 losses and a delayed IPO expose hyperscalers to a $1.6 trillion annual infrastructure demand gap.

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On a Bloomberg Businessweek segment that aired August 7, 2026, Ed Zitron, CEO of EZ Primary Research and one of the more vocal AI skeptics in financial media, made a claim that reframes how investors should think about hyperscaler cloud growth. Citing UBS estimates that 27% of Google Cloud's revenue this year comes from OpenAI and Anthropic, rising to 48% next year, totaling over $124 billion, Zitron argued that the AI boom powering Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is dangerously narrow.

Zitron's thesis: what looks like broad, diversified enterprise demand for AI compute is, in his view, circular financing concentrated in two unprofitable private companies that, as he put it, "do not pay their bills out of existing cash flow."

The Concentration Numbers Across the Three Hyperscalers

Google Cloud is the epicenter of the argument. The segment posted $24.768 billion in Q2 2026 revenue, growing 82% year-over-year, its fifth consecutive quarter of acceleration. Alphabet spent $44.924 billion on capex in the quarter, more than double the prior year, and raised roughly $70 billion through combined equity and debt financing, per its Q2 8-K filing. Free cash flow turned negative at -$5.855 billion, and the buyback was suspended.

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Zitron's argument is that this spending is being underwritten by a customer base most investors misunderstand. At AWS, Barclays puts exposure to those same two customers at 13% this year, rising to 18% next year. At Microsoft, Zitron reported that 69% of Microsoft Intelligent Cloud's year-over-year growth in 2025 came from OpenAI alone, and without it that segment would have grown just 8% year-over-year. He also cited reporting from The Information that 89% of the largest AI companies' revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic.

For context, Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud segment produced $39.306 billion in Q4 FY2026 revenue, up 32%, with Azure growth of 43%. AWS delivered $42.232 billion in Q2 2026, up 37% year-over-year, described by Andy Jassy as its fastest growth in 18 quarters.

The Sustainability Problem

Zitron then attacked the demand side. He cited OpenAI losses of $20.9 billion in 2025 and flagged that over $800 million of OpenAI's revenue came from SoftBank's "Crystal Intelligence" program, of which he claims he can find "no evidence of actually anything happening."

Scaling that concern industry-wide, he referenced Sightline Climate projections that data centers will require over $1.6 trillion in annual revenue to sustain. Two customers cannot backfill that hole, Zitron argued, "especially when Anthropic and OpenAI, well, they can't afford anything."

The Enron Parallel and IPO Delay

The rhetorical peak of Zitron's segment was a comparison to Enron. With OpenAI's IPO reportedly delayed to 2027, which he called "lethal for a number of people," Zitron argued executives at the hyperscalers have "a fiduciary responsibility" to shareholders that may be getting overlooked amid the AI infrastructure race.

Grassroots discussion mirrors the concern. A Reddit thread titled "Either hyperscalers are dumb or someone else is" drew 4,024 upvotes and 1,503 comments, and a separate post flagged Alphabet's first quarter of negative free cash flow in Q2 2026.

Context for Investors

Markets have not yet punished the trade. GOOGL is up 80.8% over the past year, AMZN up 23.01%, and MSFT down 3.23% over the same one-year window. Analysts remain broadly constructive, with GOOGL carrying 58 Buy ratings and an average target of $428.04.

The bull case, that Gemini, Copilot, and Bedrock are seeding genuine enterprise demand well beyond two labs, is real and reflected in Microsoft's commercial RPO of $678 billion, up 84% year-over-year, and over 30 million paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats. Zitron's warning is a contrarian argument, clearly his opinion, and worth weighing against those data points rather than treating as a verdict. Investors watching hyperscaler capex through 2027 will want to track customer disclosure closely.

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