With a $40 Billion Backlog, Nebius Stock Appears Positioned for Sustained Growth

Faisal Humayun Khan

Mon, August 10, 2026 at 8:08 PM GMT+3 4 min read

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Nebius Group (NBIS) stock has witnessed a strong rally of 175% in the last 12 months. This rally has been backed by stellar top-line growth, a swelling contracted backlog, industry tailwinds, and EBITDA-level profitability in the most recent quarter.

Amidst the bullish momentum, there are two points worth noting. First, NBIS stock had touched all-time highs of $299.9 in June 2026. From those levels, there has been a correction of 37%.

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Further, even after a deep correction, there appears to be some skepticism related to the company's valuation and credit profile. Recently, Michael Burry disclosed a short position in Nebius Group that was initiated at $211.77 per share. Burry believes that leverage risks linked to off-balance-sheet commitments are rising and can translate into downside for stocks like NBIS and Oracle (ORCL).

As of March 2026, Nebius reported $8.4 billion in debt. Additionally, the operating lease liability of $1 billion implied a total debt of $9.4 billion. The company also raised $775 million through debt financing in July 2026. While $10.2 billion in debt seems like a concern, credit metrics are likely to improve on the back of robust growth and EBITDA margin expansion. NIBS stock seems worth accumulating on declines.

About Nebius Group

Headquartered in Schiphol, Netherlands, Nebius Group is a global AI cloud platform delivering a unified full-stack AI cloud that spans the complete AI journey—from compute capacity to software and services. The company is therefore an enabler of fast and efficient training and inference at scale.

The company's offering includes an integrated suite of AI and ML cloud solutions, including both hardware and software built in-house. Nebius Group includes Nebius along with two distinct businesses that operate under separate brands: Avride, a leading developer of autonomous vehicles and delivery robots; and TripleTen, a leading edtech platform reskilling people for careers in tech.

For FY25, Nebius Group reported revenue of $529.8 million, which was higher by 479% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis. For the same period, the company's adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $64.9 million as compared to $226.3 million. However, for Q1 FY26, the company reported $399 million in revenue and a positive adjusted EBITDA of $129.5 million.

Robust top-line growth, operating-level profits in Q1, and structural industry tailwinds have translated into a rally of 106% in the last six months.

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Robust Growth to Sustain

For Q4 FY25, Nebius reported revenue growth of 547% on a YoY basis. Further, for Q1 FY26, top-line growth accelerated to 684%. It's clear that the company is on a robust growth trajectory. For FY26, Nebius has guided for revenue in the range of $3 billion to $3.4 billion. At the same time, the company's ARR is expected to be in the range of $7 billion to $9 billion.

From a credit perspective, the company ended Q1 with a cash buffer of $9.3 billion. The financing after Q1 implies that a cash buffer has swelled to $10 billion. With significant capital secured, Nebius will continue to pursue aggressive expansion.

The company has also guided for adjusted EBITDA of 40% for FY26. Assuming a mid-range of the revenue guidance at $3.2 billion, the adjusted EBITDA is likely to be $1.3 billion. As margin expands and cash flows swell, Nebius will be well positioned for debt servicing.

Nebius has also indicated that it's positioned to raise further capital with "attractive terms." A key reason is $40 billion in contracted revenue from customers that include Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) .

Overall, Nebius seems well-positioned for growth that's backed by secured financing. As EBITDA margin sustains at higher levels and cash flows swell, the company will be positioned to improve credit metrics.

What Do Analysts Say About NBIS Stock?

Based on 17 analysts with coverage, NBIS stock has a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating. While 10 analysts have a "Strong Buy" rating for the stock, seven have a "Hold" rating.

The mean price target of $252.07 represents a potential upside of 34% from current levels. Further, the most bullish price target of $410 suggests that NBIS could climb as much as 118% from here.