KBW keeps KEEL target at $4.50 as permits gate AI data center projects

KBW keeps KEEL target at $4.50 as permits gate AI data center projects

William Foxley

Mon, August 10, 2026 at 9:55 PM GMT+3 2 min read

• KEEL -3.24%

KBW maintained its Market Perform stance and $4.50 price target on KEEL (NASDAQ: KEEL), formerly Bitfarms, after the operator's second-quarter revenue came in below estimates. The target implies 16% upside from the $3.88 share price cited in the Monday note.

KEEL generated $30.4 million of revenue, down about 50% from $61 million a year earlier. The result came in below KBW analyst Stephen Glagola's $34.3 million call and the $33.8 million consensus forecast.

KBW identified notice to proceed, or NTP, as the main development milestone for KEEL's priority sites. Panther Creek and Sharon in Pennsylvania require environmental approvals, while Moses Lake in Washington still has land-development and environmental permits pending.

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Lower overhead offsets revenue miss

On KBW's definition, EBITDA was negative $24.1 million, a bit better than the firm's negative $24.9 million estimate but still under the negative $15.8 million consensus. Gross profit was negative $2.6 million, versus KBW's negative $200,000 forecast.

Cash G&A slipped 11% sequentially to $21.5 million, coming in below KBW's $24.7 million estimate. Management-adjusted EBITDA was negative $23.7 million after $400,000 of add-backs tied to KEEL's U.S. redomiciliation and conversion to U.S. GAAP.

Permits remain outstanding

Panther Creek has 350 MW of secured utility capacity with PPL, and KEEL has secured zoning plus conditional land-development approval. Final environmental permits are still pending, and KBW said an August 20 meeting with the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection could provide further clarity.

Sharon has zoning and land-development approvals but still needs environmental clearance, including a Chapter 102 National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permit. KEEL is discussing triple-net lease structures that could pair growing AI tenants with investment-grade credit support.

At Moses Lake, Washington's permitting process has allowed site work to begin while KEEL completes approvals needed to go vertical. Management said the first Vertiv modules had arrived and long-lead equipment was in production. The project remains KEEL's first data center expected to be fully commissioned and energized in 2027, despite a delay of about two months.

KEEL is negotiating with multiple prospective tenants at each site, including hyperscalers, AI companies, GPU cloud operators and large enterprises. Management did not identify counterparties, disclose lease economics or provide a timetable for signed agreements.

KEEL had $819 million of liquidity as of August 7 after completing a $458 million convertible senior-notes offering in June and selling 1,085 bitcoin for $75 million since April 1. Management said that liquidity can fund development through lease signing and cash G&A through 2028.

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KBW's $4.50 target applies a 6.7% cap rate to prospective Sharon and Moses Lake leases and assigns Panther Creek 50% of its estimated lease value at the same cap rate. The valuation also incorporates capitalized cash SG&A, adjusted net debt and KEEL's remaining bitcoin holdings.