DA Davidson cuts Nebius target 30% as Vineland delays threaten 2026 guidance

DA Davidson cuts Nebius target 30% as Vineland delays threaten 2026 guidance

William Foxley

Tue, August 11, 2026 at 6:36 PM GMT+3 3 min read

• NBIS +34.14%

DA Davidson cut its Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) price target to $175 from $250 on Monday, citing construction delays at the neocloud operator's Vineland, New Jersey, data-center project. The firm kept its Neutral rating.

The 30% target reduction followed a DA Davidson site visit and attendance at a local public hearing, according to an Investing.com summary of the firm's note. The new target represented 8.6% downside from the $191.53 share price cited at publication.

DA Davidson lowered its estimates after concluding that the Vineland facility may not be completed during 2026. The delay could remove potential upside from Nebius' 2026 guidance and weaken the execution advantage that has distinguished it from other neocloud operators, the firm said.

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Nebius shares had gained 173% over the preceding year, giving the operator a $48.1 billion market capitalization at the price cited in the report. DA Davidson said that performance reflected Nebius' record of delivering capacity, while Vineland will test whether it can maintain that pace.

In September 2025, Nebius reached an agreement to provide Microsoft with dedicated AI infrastructure from a new data center in Vineland. Nebius said in July that it had handed over the latest planned capacity tranche to Microsoft and was still on track for the rest of the deliveries.

The analyst's assessment conflicts with that earlier timetable, though the available reports do not specify which remaining phase may extend beyond year-end. The local planning process covers both an existing 129,622-square-foot facility and a proposed 587,980-square-foot expansion with additional energy infrastructure.

Vineland's Planning Board held a special meeting on August 5 at the Landis Theatre, moving the hearing from City Hall to accommodate an expected crowd. The board considered a second amendment filed in March and another amendment submitted in July for the Nebius and DataOne development on South Lincoln Avenue.

The existing building was described at the meeting as nearing completion. The proposed expansion would add a two-story building, energy infrastructure and other site components, creating a broader development schedule than the initial structure alone.

Residents raised concerns about utility costs, water consumption, sound mitigation and public disclosure. Helen Petrites, a Vineland resident who brought 2,900 signatures opposing the center, said: "No one wants to live here anymore around the data center. It's become a joke in the neighborhood we're here until we die because no one will buy our houses."

The planning discussion put average water consumption at 8 million gallons annually. Michael Fralinger, an attorney for DataOne, said the project would bear costs associated with its power requirements and had met its public-notice obligations, while conceding that "transparency can always be better."

The Vineland scrutiny comes after Nebius raised about $775 million through its first senior secured debt financing in July. The loan matures on October 31, 2030, and carries interest at one-month Term SOFR plus 250 bps, with a 0% SOFR floor.

The loan is backed by deployed GPU infrastructure plus cash flows under a contract with an investment-grade customer. Nebius said the financing and those customer cash flows more than covered the capital expenditure needed for the related infrastructure, while the parent's guarantee is limited to specified bad acts and performance obligations.

Nebius has said it has more than $40 billion in extra contracted revenue from investment-grade customers, including Microsoft and Meta. The operator expects to apply similar asset-level financing to other long-term deployments, which makes construction timing and customer handovers central to its capacity expansion model.

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Nebius is scheduled to report earnings on Wednesday, with options pricing cited by Investing.com implying a potential 13% move around the results. Piper Sandler recently initiated coverage at Neutral with a $224 target, while Baird began coverage at Outperform with a $250 target.