Elon Musk Has 'Believers, Not Investors,' Steve Eisman Says—Is That Why SPCX Pumped Into the 911 Million Share Unlock?

Daragh Thomas

Wed, August 12, 2026 at 9:31 PM GMT+3 5 min read

SPCX -3.33%

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Steve Eisman, the investor made famous by "The Big Short," says SpaceX is difficult to value like an ordinary company because Elon Musk has "believers, not investors."

The comment comes as SpaceX shares have remained remarkably resilient since lockup restrictions on roughly 911.5 million shares expired Aug. 6, a tranche that became eligible for sale but was not necessarily sold.

Speaking on his podcast "The Real Eisman Playbook," Eisman called SpaceX's first quarterly report as a public company "very mixed at best."

Revenue of $7.8 billion grew 92% year over year and the net loss narrowed to $541 million, but capital expenditures jumped to $18.4 billion, with roughly $15.8 billion reportedly going toward AI infrastructure.

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'What Exactly Is This Business Model About?'

Eisman asked whether SpaceX is a satellite and rocketry business with monopolistic characteristics, an AI company trailing OpenAI and Anthropic, or a strange combination of the two.

Ordinarily, he argued, the answer would matter enormously because the market would value each of those businesses very differently.

He noted that second-quarter revenue annualizes to roughly $31.2 billion against what he described as a market capitalization near $1.6 trillion, a multiple he judged "a tad expensive."

A 'Moat Built by His Personality'

"But Elon Musk has a moat built by his personality," Eisman said. "He has believers, not investors."

"So, who knows what it is, and it doesn't matter anyway," he added, arguing that the question of what kind of company SpaceX actually is may matter less to its valuation than it would for almost any other business.

911 Million-Share Unlock Fails to Trigger Selloff

Eisman flagged the lockup expiration as the next test moments later. "This Thursday, 911 million shares of SpaceX stock came unlocked from insiders," he said, adding it would be interesting to see how the market digests the new supply.

So far, the market appears to have digested it well. Rather than buckling under the expanded pool of tradable shares, the stock surged roughly 16% Friday and reclaimed its $135 IPO price Monday.

Prediction-market traders are betting the rebound has further to run. Polymarket gives SpaceX a 70% chance of touching $140 at some point in August and a 66% chance of reaching $145, with roughly $56,400 traded on the market.

Not All the 'Believers' Are Holding

There are signs, however, that retail enthusiasm may be cooling. Retail investors became net sellers of SpaceX for the first time since its June IPO on Friday, according to Reuters, offloading a net $4.5 million of shares even as the stock rallied.

The August release is also not the end of SpaceX's lockup overhang. Further tranches of restricted shares are scheduled to become eligible for sale later this year, setting up several more tests of Eisman's "believers" thesis.

Image: Shutterstock

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