SpaceX is racing back toward $150 — how to play a breakout with limited risk: Alpha Options Playbook

SpaceX is racing back toward $150 — how to play a breakout with limited risk: Alpha Options Playbook

Thu, August 13, 2026 at 1:00 PM GMT+3 2 min read

• SPCX -1.26%

SpaceX has come roaring back from its August low. Now it is testing its record-setting $150 opening trade.

Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) have rallied more than 40% from their Aug. 3 low near $105. The stock was recently trading around $148, putting $150 — its first public trade — squarely back in play.

A break above $150 would open the door to the next big test. SpaceX traded through the $170 area during its initial post-IPO run, and the $172 to $180 zone emerged as resistance again in July.

One way to bet on that move while limiting the dollars at risk is a bull call spread. The investor buys one call and sells another at a higher strike, lowering the upfront cost while giving up gains above the higher level.

The first move is buying the Oct. 16 $150 call. But by itself, it is expensive.

The call costs about $17.25 per share, or $1,725 for one contract covering 100 shares. SpaceX would need to reach $167.25 by expiration just for that option to break even.

Part of the price comes from implied volatility, a measure of how much movement options traders expect. At roughly 72%, SpaceX options are carrying a hefty premium.

Selling the Oct. 16 $170 call for about $10.25 brings the net cost down to $7 per share, or $700 for the full position. The trade-off is straightforward — any gain above $170 is surrendered.

There was an even cheaper-looking choice that was avoided.

The Aug. 21 version cost about $399 and offered roughly $4 of maximum profit for every $1 at risk.

The catch was the clock. With only nine days until expiration, SpaceX would have needed to make the move almost immediately. October costs more but buys roughly two additional months for the $150 breakout to play out.

If SpaceX finishes at or below $150 on Oct. 16, the $700 paid upfront is lost. Above the $157 breakeven, profits rise until the stock reaches $170, where the maximum gain of $1,300 is reached.

That $170 ceiling is deliberate. As the opening chart shows, it sits at the bottom end of the zone SpaceX would have to push through after reclaiming $150.

First comes $150. Clear that, and SpaceX has room to fire toward $170.

Jared Blikre is the global markets and data editor for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X at @SPYJared or email him at jaredblikre@yahooinc.com.

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