Swissquote Gets Mugged by Crypto Winter

Swissquote Gets Mugged by Crypto Winter

Mark Nichols

Thu, August 13, 2026 at 7:20 PM GMT+3 4 min read

• NVDA -0.06%
• SQN.SW +2.01%

THE GIST

Our analysts just identified a stock with the potential to be the next Nvidia. Tell us how you invest and we'll show you why it's our #1 pick. Tap here.

Swissquote is still pulling in clients and money. The problem is that crypto stopped pulling its weight.

Investors looked past the record assets and focused on the guidance cut. When a growth stock says "still good, just less good," the market tends to hear the second part louder.

WHAT HAPPENED

Swissquote reported a mixed first half.

Client assets rose to a record CHF 96.3 billion (about $118.5 billion), up nearly 20% from a year earlier and close to the CHF 100 billion mark. The online bank added 64,011 accounts in six months, taking the total to 1.22 million, while net new money reached CHF 5.1 billion, one of its best half-year inflow performances.

Net revenue rose 1.7% year on year to CHF 364.2 million. Pre-tax profit was almost flat at CHF 182.9 million, with the pre-tax profit margin holding above 50%. Net profit slipped to CHF 153.6 million from CHF 158.2 million a year earlier.

The issue was crypto. Net crypto assets income dropped 66.2% to CHF 14.6 million as bitcoin and other digital assets weakened amid geopolitical tension, higher interest rates and a stronger dollar. Crypto trading volumes also fell sharply, with FNG reporting monthly volumes down 60% from the second half of 2025.

Swissquote cut its 2026 guidance. It now expects net revenue of about CHF 730 million, down from CHF 760 million, and pre-tax profit of about CHF 365 million, down from CHF 385 million. Some reports put the market reaction at around a 10% to 13% share-price drop.

WHY IT MATTERS

Swissquote's results show the upside and downside of being a diversified trading platform with a crypto kicker.

The core business looks healthy. The bank is gaining accounts, attracting fresh assets and growing outside Switzerland, particularly in Europe. Net fee and commission income rose, net trading income increased, interest income improved and eForex benefited from volatility in precious metals and commodities. Client assets are close to CHF 100 billion, and management still believes it can reach CHF 500 million of pre-tax profit by 2028.

That is the bull case in one paragraph: more clients, more assets, more products and a bigger European footprint.

One stock. Nvidia-level potential. 30M+ investors trust Moby to find it first. Get the pick. Tap here.

The bear case is that Swissquote is still exposed to market mood swings. Crypto was only 4% of revenue in the first half, but it has historically been a high-margin contributor. When crypto activity disappears, the pain lands quickly on profit expectations.

Management said first-half crypto revenue was far below its budget. It had expected crypto to contribute much more in 2026, but low volatility and weaker prices left clients less active. The bank also recorded a negative mark-to-market adjustment on its crypto inventory, tied to liquidity provision for its own crypto exchange.

That makes this less of a balance-sheet scare and more of an earnings-quality issue. Swissquote is not broken. It is just less exciting when crypto is quiet.

The cost side also matters. Expenses rose 4.6% to CHF 181.3 million, driven by higher depreciation, marketing spend and the full consolidation of Yuh, the mobile finance app Swissquote now fully owns. Headcount rose as the group invested in technology, data, engineering and AI. Those investments may support long-term efficiency, but for now they add cost while crypto income is down.

Yuh is a useful example of the trade-off. The app grew to 423,409 accounts and CHF 4 billion in client assets, but it posted a small pre-tax loss in the first half. Swissquote says it remains on track for full-year break-even, helped by growth and marketing efforts, including a partnership with Swiss football club BSC Young Boys.

The bank is also edging toward a higher regulatory category in Switzerland. Its balance sheet is close to CHF 17 billion, which could push it into FINMA's Category 3 bank status. Management says much of the cost burden has already been absorbed, but investors will still watch capital and compliance needs.

Swissquote's long-term story is becoming less about crypto hype and more about whether it can turn scale into steadier earnings. The company wants more non-transaction revenue from interest income, custody fees, securities lending and structured products. That would make it less dependent on customers trading whatever asset is hot this quarter.

The market is not rejecting that plan. It is asking for proof.

WHAT'S NEXT

Investors will watch whether crypto activity recovers in the second half, whether Yuh reaches break-even and whether Swissquote keeps attracting strong net new money. The key tests are client assets, revenue margins, operating leverage, AI productivity gains, securities lending growth, regulatory costs and progress toward the 2028 pre-tax profit target.

Swissquote has the clients. Now it needs earnings that do not vanish when crypto takes a nap.